IndiGo Could Slip Into Loss In Q3 As Operational Disruptions Force Guidance Cut
IndiGo could post a loss of up to Rs 663 crore or a profit of up to Rs 690 crore.
InterGlobe Aviation, the parent of IndiGo’s December quarter is shaping up to be one of its most challenging in recent years, with the airline likely to slip into losses after a series of operational disruptions forced a sharp reduction in its guidance.
IndiGo, in an exchange notification late on Wednesday, said it expects high single to early double-digit growth in available seat kilometres (ASKs) in Q3, compared with the earlier projection of high-teens growth It also now expects a 'mid-single digit downward moderation' in passenger unit revenues (PRASK), instead of the earlier view of flattish to slight growth.
The airline has now revised its third quarter capacity growth estimate to a much slower 8–12%, compared with the earlier projection of 17–19%. Passenger unit revenues, earlier expected to grow between 0–2%, are now forecast to decline by 4–5%.
This twin hit of softer yields and reduced flying capacity significantly weakens the revenue outlook for the quarter. IndiGo added that any implications for the fourth quarter and the full-year financial year 2026 guidance will be shared later once the situation stabilises.
Based on the revised numbers, IndiGo’s expected third quarter revenue has been recalculated to fall in the range of Rs 23,012- Rs 23,616 crore, implying muted growth of just 0–3%. This is a sharp comedown from the earlier revenue projection of Rs 25,968– Rs 26,941 crore, which would have delivered growth of 13–17%. Lower capacity, pressure on passenger fares and the operational challenges collectively explain the flattening of revenue momentum.
Cost pressures are likely to add further strain. IndiGo’s unit cost in third quarter fiscal 2025 stood at Rs 4.83. Even a moderate rise of 5% would push the third quarter financial year 2026 unit cost to Rs 5.07, while a 10% increase would lift it to Rs 5.31. With unit revenues falling and costs rising simultaneously, the margin environment for the quarter turns significantly adverse.
The combined impact of lower revenue and higher costs means that the airline’s profitability range for quarter ended December is unusually wide. Based on current assumptions, IndiGo could post a loss of up to Rs 663 crore or a profit of up to Rs 690 crore. The lower end of this spectrum indicates a clear possibility of the airline slipping into the red after a series of strong quarters over the past two years.
Despite the financial pressure, IndiGo has stressed that safety standards and adherence to FDTL regulations remain top priorities. The airline has assured that operational compliance and crew wellbeing will not be compromised, even as recovery efforts progress.
