- India must proceed with extreme caution in US trade deal negotiations and seek a joint statement
- Trump's verbal claims on deals with Indonesia and Vietnam have distorted actual trade negotiations
- A bad trade deal could harm India's long-term interests more than no deal at all
India must proceed with extreme caution while negotiating a trade agreement with the United States and insist on a jointly issued, written statement before acknowledging any deal, according to Ajay Srivastava, founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).
In a note on Wednesday, he warned that recent examples involving Indonesia and Vietnam demonstrate how verbal claims or social media announcements by the Trump administration can distort actual negotiations.
President Trump recently declared a "done deal" with Indonesia, suggesting full US market access at zero tariffs, while Indonesian goods would face a 19% duty. If mirrored with India, such an arrangement could expose Indian sectors like agriculture and dairy to duty-free US imports without receiving proportional benefits, he said.
A similar pattern played out with Vietnam, where Trump announced a 20% tariff deal, while Vietnamese officials confirmed only 11%.
The think-tank further noted that a bad deal could be worse than no deal at all, especially if it compromises India's long-term trade interests. Instead of rushing, India should negotiate transparently, resist pressure for quick outcomes, and ensure reciprocal gains.
"Trump's tendency to shift goalposts makes long-term agreements unpredictable," Srivastava cautioned.
Simultaneously, India is facing pressure on another front, its energy ties with Russia. Trump has proposed 100% tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, while NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte warned India, China, and Brazil of "massive consequences" if they failed to pressure Russia on peace talks. Srivastava described these warnings as excessive and inappropriate, calling them a form of “neo-colonial arrogance."
He argued that India must stay the course on Russian oil, which continues to help stabilise domestic fuel prices and inflation. Giving in to pressure won't shield India from future US tariff threats, he said, adding that "even a trade deal won't guarantee protection if Trump shifts the goalposts later."
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