Here Are Jefferies' Top Bets For November

Jefferies has given a 'buy' rating to 27 stocks for November, while five companies have gotten an 'underperform' rating.

In the financial segment, Axis Bank Ltd., Bajaj Finance Ltd., Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Co., ICICI Bank Ltd., ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Co., IndusInd Bank Ltd. and Shriram Finance Ltd. featured in the brokerage's top buy list.

TVS Motor Co. and Eicher Motors Ltd. were among Jefferies' top picks in the automotive sector. Among the pharma stocks, Piramal Pharma Ltd., Max Healthcare Institute Ltd., and Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. were the brokerage's preferred bets.

Other companies which got a 'buy' rating from the brokerage are Kajaria Ceramics Ltd., Godrej Consumer Products Ltd., Honasa Consumer Ltd., Amber Enterprise Pvt., Supreme Industries Ltd., and Zomato Ltd.

• The brokerage has a 'buy' rating on ICICI Bank, with a price target of Rs 1,250 apiece.

• ICICI Bank can sustain superior growth, better asset quality, and return on equity, it said.

• Personal loan book is holding up well, asset quality in corporate loan is recovering.

• Forecasted to post 17% CAGR in profit over FY23-26 and ROE of 18.1% in FY25.

• Jefferies has a 'buy' rating on Axis Bank, with a price target of Rs 1,250 per share.

• Expected to deliver high growth and ROE.

• Past investment made the franchise stronger.

• Integration with Citibank's India retail business performing well, which can synergise 60 areas of revenue and costs.

• Axis Bank boasts of one of the top rated mobile banking application in the world. The digital platform has posted Rs 1,300 crore profit, which is 17% of retail rising loan and deposit origination.

• Jefferies forecasts it to deliver 16% CAGR in normalised profit over FY23-26 and ROE of 18.6% in FY25.

• Has a 'buy' rating on IndusInd Bank, with a price target of Rs 1,800 apiece.

• Expected to deliver turnaround and return on assets as it is focused to build the core franchise, with a focus on building domain specialised loan and liabilities, the brokerage said.

• IndusInd's loan is expected to grow at 20% CAGR over the next 3-5 years, as it plans to ramp up newer areas like housing, used car, merchant financing, gold loans and business banking.

• IndusInd has the potential to build granular liability relationships by focusing on business owner clients, non-resident and home markets, and wealth product relationships, Jefferies said.

• The brokerage sees improvement in franchise and earnings profile as well as tailwinds from peaking and fall in funding costs. It expects these steps to lift IndusInd's ROA from 1.2% in FY22 to 2% in FY25 and ROE towards 17%.

• Has a 'buy' rating on Bajaj Finance, with a price target of Rs 9,470 per share.

• Bajaj Finance is expected to post robust growth of 30% CAGR in AUM over the next three years, as it leverages on expansion into new markets and addition of new products, Jefferies said.

• Jefferies expects ROA will remain healthy at 4.5% in FY25, despite factoring in 40-basis-point compression in net interest margin over FY23-26.

• The brokerage sees Bajaj Finance's aim to entertain segments like commercial vehicle, construction equipment financing, car loans for second-hand or new vehicles, and micro-lending, among others, to capture the gap in existing portfolio and support growth over the medium-term.

• Has a 'buy' rating on ICICI Prudential Life, with a price target of Rs 670 apiece.

• Expansion in agency and measures to improve productivity, customer-centric product to support growth, Jefferies said.

• Lower sales in ICICI Bank channel should start tapering off as annual premium equivalent of this channel was down 25% in the first quarter of fiscal 2024, as compared with 38% decline in the corresponding period last year.

• An expansion of the distribution network and initiatives to improve agents' productivity should improve growth.

• The brokerage sees a pick-up in premium growth, with sustainable margin around 31-32%. This will be a key rerating catalyst for ICICI Prudential Life.

• Has a 'buy' rating on Cholamandalam Finance, with a price target of Rs 1,350 apiece.

• Jefferies expect Cholamandalam's AUM should moderate in the second half due to a high base. However, it should still grow at 34% in the current financial year, and have 29% CAGR over FY23-26.

• Cholamandalam's margin have bottomed out, and from here on it's expected to inch up in FY24-26, Jefferies said.

• Cholamandalam is expected to deliver 29% EPS, CAGR, and over 20% ROE over FY23-26.

• The company has posted better asset quality as compared with its peers.

• Has a 'buy' rating on Shriram Finance, with a price target of Rs 1,350 per share.

• Jefferies see near-term margin pressure as cost of funds is likely to inch higher.

• Shriram Finance is expected to deliver 18% EPS, CAGR, and 15% ROE over FY23-26.

• Shriram Finance's asset quality is broadly stable, it said.

• Has a 'buy' rating on Tata Motors Ltd., with a price target of Rs 800 apiece.

• Tata Motors' Jaguar Land Rover has a strong product cycle, and easing chip constraints is driving better operating and financial performance.

• By FY25, the brokerage expects Ebitda to be 2.1 times of FY23, EPS to rise to a new high, and auto balance sheet to turn net cash.

• Jefferies finds Tata better positioned, despite expected slowdown in passenger vehicles. Tata Motors derives 65% of its volume from faster growing SUV segment.

• Jefferies gave a 'buy' rating to TVS Motors.

• Improved demand for two-wheelers are also likely to support TVS Motors.

• Jefferies expects 11.3-12.1% Ebitda margin in the second half of the financial year 2024, as volume recovers and the improving franchise further strengthens pricing power.

• TVS should be largely unaffected by pace of electric vehicle adoption, with its improving ICE (internal combustion engine) as well as EV franchise, Jefferies said.

• Has a 'buy' rating on the company.

• Improved demand for two-wheelers are also likely to support Eicher Motors.

• The brokerage said the risk to Royal Enfield's market share has now alleviated, while it is likely to benefit from strong tailwinds of two-wheeler recovery, industry premiumisation and potential to grow exports.

• Jefferies expects Eicher Motors' Ebitda and EPS to rise 68% and 86%, respectively, over FY23-26.

• The brokerage forecasted CAGR of 19% and 23% in FY23-26, and FY24-25 EPS estimates are 5-11% above the street.

• Has a 'buy' rating on Coal India Ltd., with a price target of Rs 385 per share.

• Coal India's improved volume trajectory is expected to sustain amid positive economic outlook and increased power consumption.

• An improved volume growth along with lower-than-expected cost trajectory has significantly improved Coal India's earnings outlook, said the brokerage in a report.

• The big impact of wage hike and e-auction price fall has already come through.

• Jefferies sees 7% volume CAGR and a 5% EPS CAGR for Coal India over FY23-26. FY24-25 EPS estimate is 15-23% above consensus, it said.

• Has a 'buy' rating on Larsen & Toubro Ltd., with a price target of Rs 3,400 per share.

• Larsen & Toubro's order book is 3.6 times bigger in the ongoing financial year as compared with 2023, which indicates revenue visibility for the upcoming financial year.

• Jefferies said the peak of non-core investments is behind, and L&T has potential to surprise on execution and order flow expectations.

• Prudent capital allocation and ROE improving to over 16% in FY25 from 12% in FY23 without any significant triggers.

• Has a 'buy' rating on Thermax Ltd., with a price target of Rs 3,800 per share.

• Thermax is focusing on leveraging its brand in green offerings, improving capital allocation, margin improvement, and seeking new renewable energy growth with global tie-ups.

• Trends are still supporting a broad-based capex recovery.

• Lower commodity prices, improving supply chain, and operating leverage should drive Thermax's margin improvement, Jefferies said.

• Has a 'buy' rating on NTPC Ltd., with a price target of Rs 300 per share.

• NTPC is one of the major benefactors of a rise in capital expenditure in India, as the country enters in the capital expenditure expansion era.

• Jefferies sees interest cost advantage giving room to NTPC to bid 10-15% lower and earn same equity internal rate of return.

• NTPC's non-fossil fuel portfolio is expected to rise.

• Has a 'buy' rating on JSW Energy Ltd., with a price target of Rs 520 apiece.

• Jefferies expect improvement of renewable energy moving to 81% of capacity by FY30 from 52% in FY23.

• JSW Energy is expected to progress on one of India’s first green hydrogen plants and energy storage battery unit.

• Jefferies forecasted 32% EPS, CAGR in FY24-26.

• Godrej Properties Ltd.'s pre-sales performance has been strong recently, with the past two to three quarters being a record, said Jefferies in a report.

• The company has done well in creating a strong pipeline to achieve over 20% sales CAGR target in the medium-term, Jefferies said.

• The brokerage firm sees profit rising from Rs 600 crore in fiscal 2023, to Rs 1,500 crore in the next three years.

• Jefferies also expects an improvement in profitability and cash flows will drive a rerating in the stock.

• Has a 'buy' rating on Godrej Consumer Products Ltd., with a price target of Rs 1,200 apiece.

• Impact of rising inflation, declining volume, and fall in businesses in Indonesia and Africa has abated, according to Jefferies.

• Godrej Consumer Products' trajectory has improved for several categories, like haircare, skincare in the India business, led by category development initiatives under the new CEO.

• Jefferies expects a 17% EPS, CAGR over FY23-26.

• Has a 'buy' rating on Honasa Consumer, with a price target of Rs 520 per share.

• Honasa has gone beyond its direct-to-consumer origins, expanding aggressively in the offline channel, which is now a third of the revenue.

• Honasa Consumer has become a leading digital-first beauty and personal care brand in India, with a revenue of Rs 1,800 crore.

• Over FY23-26, Jefferies expects Honasa to deliver a sector-leading 27% revenue CAGR.

• Has a 'buy' rating on Zomato, with a price target of Rs 160 apiece.

• Zomato has been consistent in gaining market share, on the back of superior execution, and is the leader with a 55% share, Jefferies said.

• Consumer preference for convenience, rise in women's share in working population, and young adult working class people are driving growth.

• Zomato's net profit was positive in the first quarter of FY24, way earlier than guidance.

• Improving profitability across both food delivery and quick commerce should continue to drive earnings growth.

• Has a 'buy' rating on Sun Pharma, with a price target of Rs 1,130 per share.

• Sun Pharma is the largest player in the domestic market and boasts of 8.5% share.

• Sun Pharma also has strong product portfolio on both acute and chronic segment, which will help the pharma giant to post low double-digit growth.

• Products like Cequa and Winlevi will help Sun Pharma grow the U.S. business at high single to low double-digit, even if sales of generic business do not increase from hereon, Jefferies said.

• Has a 'buy' rating on Max Healthcare, with a price target of Rs 685 per share.

• Max Healthcare's aim to increase bed capacity by 85% in the next 4-5 years, with more than 60% brownfield beds, will have shorter breakeven time and higher Ebitda margin.

• As the government intends to revise rates for several services and treatment packages, Max Healthcare is likely to benefit from higher rates with increased average revenue per bed. Max Healthcare has high exposure to central government healthcare schemes' patients (9% of overall sales).

• Max Healthcare has best-in-class operating and financial metrics in the industry, Jefferies said.

• Has a 'buy' rating on Piramal Pharma, with a price target of Rs 135 per share.

• The company has guided for PPL high teens sales growth in the second half of the ongoing financial year, with largely similar growth across divisions.

• Piramal Pharma has 40% higher order book in the first half of 2024.

• Piramal Pharma's successful right issue of Rs 1,050 crore was largely utilised to reduce net debt of the company.

• UltraTech Cement is expanding its domestic cement capacity organically to 160 million tonne by FY25-26.

• After addition, UltraTech Cement's domestic capacity would reach 182 metric tonne per annum by FY27, near the stated target of 200 metric tonne per annum.

• The expansion should solidify the cement-maker's top spot, with an increased dominant countrywide position.

• Cement sector has reported improvement in the first quarter of 2024, which is also likely to help UltraTech Cement.

• Has a 'buy' rating on Kajaria Ceramics, with a price target of Rs 1,565 apiece.

• Kajaria Ceramics is the domestic market leader in tiles and is likely to benefit from market share gains from the unbranded segment, Jefferies said.

• Morbi's exports could sustain pricing power in the domestic industry. Jefferies estimates FY23-26 sales net profit to be at over 14% and CAGR to be at over 29%, respectively. Housing and market leadership are driving growth, it said.

• Has a 'buy' rating on Amber Enterprise, with a price target of Rs 3,390 per share.

• Faster growth in margin-accretive components and higher refrigerator, air conditioner volume could drive net profit and CAGR to over 18% and 43%, respectively, in FY23-26, Jefferies said.

• Excess air conditioner channel inventories in the first quarter has been liquidating in the second quarter and the company foresees complete normalisation by the third quarter, according to Jefferies.

• Amber Industries is planning to improve share of Bills of Materials of passenger cars.

• Has a 'buy' rating on Supreme Industries Ltd., with a price target of Rs 5,200 per share.

• Jefferies sees Supreme Industries as a holistic player on revival in housing, capex, infrastructure and agricultural demand, led by diversified product portfolio and entrenched reach.

• Jefferies expect Supreme Industries' CAGR to be at over 17% in FY23-26e.

• Supreme Industries' pan India presence is likely to help its growth as well, it said.

• Has a 'buy' rating on Bharti Airtel Ltd., with a price target of Rs 1,085 per share.

• Over the last four quarters, Bharti Airtel has added 68 crore average quarterly 4G subscribers.

• Bharti Airtel is also seeing traction in the 4G postpaid segment.

• Structurally, there's headroom for the tariff to go up as ARPU per capita GDP ratio in India is 1.1%—much lower than 2% for other countries.

• The telecom giant continues to expand its presence in the home segment and is confident of growth in connectivity-related solutions and communication platform-as-service solution segment. This would complement strong growth in India.