Maharashtra's New Alcohol Excise Duty To Hit Hard — Here's How Much Your Pegs Will Cost Now
To ensure compliance and transparency, an AI-based system will be implemented to monitor distilleries across the state.
Alcohol consumption in Maharashtra is set to become significantly more expensive following the state government's decision to substantially increase excise duty. This hike, described as the highest percentage increase in Maharashtra since 2011, applies to both retail purchases and consumption in restaurants and bars, with premium foreign liquor brands seeing the most considerable rise.
The government has also announced fee hikes for annual licenses for outlets operating on lease and has introduced a new category, "Maharashtra-made liquor." To ensure compliance and transparency, an AI-based system will be implemented to monitor distilleries across the state.
The revised minimum retail prices for 180 ml bottles will be as follows:
Country liquor: Rs 80 (up from Rs 70)
Maharashtra-made liquor: Rs 148 (new category)
Indian-made foreign liquor (IMFL): Rs 205 (up from Rs 110-115)
Premium foreign liquor brands: Rs 360 (up from Rs 210)
Industry experts estimate that the duty hike, expected to be in the range of 50-60%, will lead to a 30-50% increase in the Maximum Retail Price (MRP) of alcohol. Maharashtra accounts for an estimated 10-12% of the total alcohol volume contribution in India.
Impact on Alcohol Companies
The move is anticipated to be a significant negative for the luxury alcohol segment in Maharashtra, potentially leading to "downgrading" by consumers and a sharp decline in sales volumes.
According to Elara, a research firm, the companies most affected will be:
United Spirits: As a market leader in the scotch and luxury segments, United Spirits is expected to see a decline in volumes within its upper prestige segment. Elara projects a negative impact of 6-8% on United Spirits' earnings, with Maharashtra contributing 20-22% of its total sales. Elara has reduced its rating on UNSP with a target price of INR 1,560.
Radico Khaitan: The second most consumed brand in Maharashtra, Radico Khaitan could experience a negative 2-3% impact on its earnings. Maharashtra accounts for 7-8% of Radico Khaitan's sales. Elara has an "Accumulate" rating on RDCK with a target price of INR 2,600.
The industry awaits the final document from the Maharashtra state government for finer details and complete clarity on the new regulations.
Positive Outlook for Beer and Wine Companies
In contrast to the liquor segment, the excise duty hike does not include beer, which is seen as a positive for beer companies. Beer has reportedly been underperforming IMFL, and this exemption could provide a boost. Beer stocks in focus include Som Distilleries, United Breweries, and GM Breweries.
GM Breweries, which focuses on country liquor, contributes 25-30% of Maharashtra's excise duty. Som Distilleries has a revenue split heavily favoring beer, with 93% from beer and only 7% from IMFL.
Similarly, wine companies are expected to remain unaffected as wine has a separate regulatory framework in Maharashtra. This is particularly positive for Sula Vineyards, which maintains a strong market presence in the state.
