Blinkit May Corner Nearly Half Of Quick Commerce Market — Where Will That Leave Zepto?

India’s quick commerce race appears to be entering a decisive phase. According to Goldman Sachs, Blinkit is no longer just leading the sector — it is on track to entrench its dominance, potentially controlling close to half of the market over the medium term. The more pressing question now is what this concentration means for rivals, particularly Zepto.

Goldman Sachs estimates Blinkit currently holds 40–45% market share of India’s quick commerce industry, a position it expects to remain largely intact through fiscal 2030E. The brokerage in its report on Friday said it sees Blinkit’s leadership as structural rather than cyclical, underpinned by scale, infrastructure density and improving unit economics.

Blinkit already controls more than 50% of India’s 6,000+ dark stores, giving it a decisive edge in delivery speed, order density and fulfilment costs. In a business where proximity and scale drive margins, this footprint advantage is difficult to replicate.

Goldman expects quick commerce to evolve into more than a two-player market, but not a fragmented one. Its base case assumes Blinkit retains a 40–45% share, two other players hold 15–29% each, and one or two sub-scale players operate on the margins.

While market share distribution may still look competitive on paper, profitability tells a far more lopsided story. Goldman expects Blinkit to command more than 100% of the industry’s Ebitda profit pool starting fiscal 2027E, and to sustain this position for at least the following two to three years.

In effect, Blinkit could be profitable while the rest of the industry continues to incur losses.

Blinkit is expected to reach Ebitda break-even by early financial year 2027E, well ahead of peers. Its implied EV/Ebitda multiple of 14x on fiscal 2030E normalised margins sits at the lower end of the India internet peer group, suggesting the market may still be underappreciating its earnings potential.

At present, seven players operate in India’s quick commerce space — Blinkit, Swiggy Instamart, Zepto, JioMart, BigBasket, Amazon and Flipkart. However, Goldman’s framework points to inevitable consolidation.

Swiggy and Zepto remain the most credible challengers, but the widening gap in store density and contribution margins puts increasing pressure on smaller or less focused players. Global platforms such as Amazon and Flipkart may participate selectively, but are unlikely to prioritise quick commerce profitability in the near term.

With industry penetration still at around 5% of total addressable market, growth remains strong — but that growth is accruing disproportionately to the market leader.

This brings the spotlight firmly onto Zepto. If Blinkit continues to consolidate market share while capturing the profit pool, the risk for challengers is not immediate failure but gradual marginalisation — a trajectory reminiscent of Snapdeal’s decline in Indian e-commerce.

Zepto still has meaningful scale and brand recall. However, sustaining relevance in a market where one player controls half the infrastructure and most of the profits will require either sustained capital deployment or a clear strategic differentiation.

In an environment where funding is becoming more selective and investor tolerance for prolonged losses is thinning, the margin for strategic missteps is narrowing rapidly.

Zomato’s recent stock correction has been driven by concerns over a near-term slowdown in quick commerce growth and the implications for its medium-term outlook. Investors have also turned cautious on the narrative of intensifying competition and the potential pressure on Blinkit’s margins.

Goldman Sachs, however, believes these fears are being overplayed. The brokerage expects Zomato’s Ebitda to grow at over 50% year-on-year through fiscal 2030E, supported by improving economics across segments.

Importantly, Goldman notes that its net order value (NOV) growth estimates for Zomato across all segments are below management guidance. In a bull case, where management delivers on its targets, Goldman sees an implied upside of 73%, versus a downside of 22% in a bear case.

This asymmetric risk-reward underpins Goldman’s continued positive stance on Eternal, the parent of Zomato and Blinkit, despite trimming its target price to Rs 375 from Rs 390.