Airbus SE predicted the global commercial aircraft fleet will double in size to almost 50,000 planes over the next 20 years, spurred by rapid growth in markets like India, where a rising middle class increasingly takes to air travel.
The global in-service fleet will swell by 24,480 units to 49,210 aircraft in 2044, Airbus predicted in its latest global market forecast that includes both its own planes and those of rivals like Boeing Co. Most of the growth will come from single-aisle aircraft like the Airbus A320 family or Boeing's 737, which form the backbone of many airlines' fleets, Airbus said.
India's domestic network will be the fastest growing aviation market over the next two decades, while China will be the biggest by capacity by then, the plane manufacturer said. Globally, Airbus expects passenger traffic to advance 3.6% a year over the long term, with traffic to the Middle East acting as another key growth driver.
Commercial aircraft are among the longest-cycle industrial products, giving Airbus and Boeing insight into travel trends stretching out decades. Airbus issued its latest outlook against a backdrop of tense global trade negotiations that threaten to complicate the movement of planes and their parts, potentially denting output and jet deliveries.
Still, Airbus said airlines haven't stopped purchasing new models even as the uncertainty created by President Donald Trump's global tariffs prompts consumers to rein in spending and forces some carriers to take a dimmer view on the rest of the year.
“With the possible exception of maybe the more domestic US market, we have not seen an inflection fundamentally in demand from our customers,” Christian Scherer, the chief executive officer of Airbus's commercial aircraft unit, said at a briefing in Toulouse, where Airbus is based. “We see continued traction and demand for our products.”
While supply-chain snarls that built up during the pandemic are gradually easing, Airbus said it continues to see a shortfall in some parts. For example, a lack of engines from CFM International on its workhorse A320neo model as well as toilets on its flagship A350 long-haul jet have hobbled deliveries, Scherer said.
India is already the world's third-largest domestic aviation market, and the growth in the number of more affluent people makes the nation of more than 1.4 billion people a crucial driver of future aircraft demand. At the International Air Transport Association annual general meeting in New Delhi this month, airlines — both foreign and domestic — announced a range of initiatives to start or increase services to and from the South Asian nation.
The country has become a major buyer of aircraft. Air India Ltd. has placed orders for 570 planes from Airbus and Boeing since 2023. IndiGo, the low-cost specialist, has an order book of more than 900 Airbus planes, including a recently expanded purchase of 60 A350 widebody aircraft.
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