A Tesla Could Set You Back Rs 55 Lakh In India; M&M Stock Impact Could Be Overdone

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. shares have fallen 18% from the high of Rs 3,198.45 per share on Feb. 7. While the larger correction has been attributed to Tesla's plans to enter India, the eventual cost of owning a car from the brand could be much higher than the prices of Mahindra’s EV — by almost 60%.

Tesla’s Model 3 Rear wheel drive vehicle costs $42,490 in the US. With the costs of freight, import duty, insurance etc., it could set one back by Rs 55 lakh in India, according to Nomura.

Compared to this, Mahindra’s XEV 9e top variant is priced at Rs 30.9 lakh, with on road price potentially going up to Rs 33-34 lakh. Here's what analysts have to say about Mahindra's near term growth.

Currently Tesla’s lowest priced model is the Model 3 priced at $42490 in the USA. This is specifically the Rear-Wheel-Drive version. That translates to roughly Rs 35 lakh just on conversion of USD/INR. Including the freight costs and assuming that Tesla will participate in the new EV scheme, a lower import duty of 15% could be applied, which would increase the overall cost to $49,714, or approximately Rs 43 lakh ex-showroom.

Including cost of GST at 5% (electric vehicles are charged 5%, compared to 28% for internal combustion engine vehicles) and cost of insurance, the overall on-road price could cross Rs 50 lakh, according to Nomura.

Currently M&M offers two models of the electric vehicle, the BE6 and the XEV 9e, with the latter being priced higher. Even with the top end variant of XEV 9e priced at Rs 30.9 lakh, the on-road price at Rs 33 lakh is a far cry from the cost of the Tesla Model 3.

Jefferies maintained a ‘buy’ on M&M, with a target price of Rs 4,075 per share. It sees the stock down 14% in the last 10 days amid concerns over Tesla's potential entry into India, but see limited impact on M&M from Tesla in near-term.

M&M's 30,000 EV orders on the first day of bookings is encouraging as it forms 30% of India's total CY24 EV sales, Jefferies said.

The heightened competition will be a challenge for established Indian carmakers, said Citi. This could manifest in either lower pricing or pressure to offer additional features.

With new EV models targeting the premium-end customers in relatively more urban areas, sales and service networks might not be as big a differentiator for Indian original equipment manufacturers, as it has been in the past with ICE vehicles.

Increased competition could also be an overhang on valuations for car makers, according to the brokerage.

Citi’s top picks in the sector are Maruti > M&M > Hyundai India in that pecking order.

Overall, M&M has strong booking numbers for their electric vehicles. Currently, the company has a production capacity of 5,000 vehicles per month. This signifies that the current order book of 30,000 vehicles on day one itself gives it a six-month order book.

M&M continues to get further order inflows, as per their dealer surveys, Nomura said.

Deliveries of the top variants of both BE6 and XEV 9e start from mid-March, with all models expected to be available by August 2025.