November Auto Sales Preview: CVs To Stun Street; Maruti, M&M, Tata Motors Ride GST High

November was a crucial month to gauge the health of automobile sector, as a dip in sales was expected following the high festive demand seen in the preceding month. However, estimates suggest that the momentum has been sustained in November, likely due to the consumption boost powered by the reduction in goods and services tax.

The commercial vehicles segment is expected post a surprise this month, based on brokerage estimates and channel checks. Some of the key reasons seen behind this is upward momentum post GST cuts, and a pickup in fleet utilisation for operators.

All automobile majors are expected to post strong numbers, with GST momentum to continue for Maruti Suzuki, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Motors and Eicher Motors.

GST cuts might have started a structural growth story in reviving key segments that had been underperforming for the last few years. It is important to note that two-wheeler industry sales have not crossed the levels seen back in 2019, which signifies the weakness in lower CC models. The tax cut bonanza has revived the bottom-end of the segment, and companies like Hero MotoCorp are a big beneficiary of this trend.

Among other trends are premiumisation and ‘scooterisation’, which are helping TVS and Eicher. Sales have been strong for both brands in the first seven months of FY26. Between April and October this year, TVS sales grew 18% year-over-year and Eicher-owned Royal Enfield grew at 27%.

The recent GST rate cuts, which reduced the rate for certain vehicles from 28% to 18%—leading to at least a 10% price reduction—have ignited growth across the Indian auto sector, particularly in the lower CC bike and small car segments. The small car space, which had lagged due to the increased cost of mandated safety and BS6 emission norms combined with stagnant consumer income, is now seeing a strong revival, positioning Maruti Suzuki as a major beneficiary with an expected growth of over 16% in November.

Furthermore, the price relief, often enhanced by additional automaker offers, has allowed many consumers to maintain their original budget while upgrading their vehicle choice — a trend seen since Sept 22 and continuing through November, benefiting Mahindra and Mahindra as well as Tata Motors.

Tata Motors, the maker of the Nexon and Punch, has demonstrated this surge clearly, reporting monthly sales exceeding 60,000 units in both September and October, a substantial increase from its average of 41,000 vehicles per month recorded between April and August this year.

While truck makers also received the 10% GST rate cut benefit, the growth in new truck sales is fundamentally driven by structural demand from sectors requiring goods movement. However, the increase in demand across these sectors has led to a beneficial environment, translating the GST rate cut into both direct and indirect advantages for commercial vehicle manufacturers.

This uplift is expected to result in a historic performance in FY26, marking the first time that all three major listed players in the segment—Eicher Motors-owned VECV, Ashok Leyland, and Tata Motors CV—are projected to achieve mid-to-high teens growth in a single month.

• Projected Monthly Growth: All three players are anticipated to show year-on-year growth ranging between 15% and 22% compared to the same period last year.

• Segment Leader: VECV is expected to register the highest growth rate among the three.

According to a note from brokerage firm Nomura, the CV demand has seen a meaningful pickup following the GST cuts, attributing the sustained momentum to improved operating economics and stable freight rates.

The momentum in tractor sales is expected to continue in November and the rest of the fiscal year, with M&M, a leader in this space, raising the FY26 growth guidance for the industry to 10-12% versus 7-9% earlier.

The overall demand sentiment remains strong, supported by improved rural liquidity and healthier cash flows.

Between April and October this year, both M&M and Escorts Kubota have grown well, showing an 18% and 11% growth in sales. For November, both companies are expected to post 8% growth in sales compared to last year.