December Auto Sales Preview: Maruti Likely To See Volume Pickup, EV Two-Wheelers Set To Shine
Maruti Suzuki is likely to see a sharp pickup in volumes, with both wholesale and retail market share improving, says Nomura.
India’s auto industry is closing the year with solid momentum, as per Nomura's latest report. Demand is being helped by GST cuts, the wedding season and steady freight activity, which is keeping showrooms and transporters busy, noted the brokerage.
Carmakers continue to see healthy inquiries and walk-ins, when it comes to passenger vehicles. Interest is particularly strong in higher-end models, and year-end discounts are helping conversions. New launches such as Maruti Suzuki’s electric Vitara and Tata Motors’ Sierra are drawing attention, with dealers reporting healthy booking pipelines.
The commercial vehicle market, Nomura says, is seeing clear signs of revival, stating that higher freight rates and better fleet operator profitability are encouraging fresh purchases and replacements.
Two-wheeler makers are also enjoying a strong month, adds the brokerage. Better affordability after GST cuts and wedding-related purchases are driving demand, says the brokerage. After a weak base last year, retail activity has improved meaningfully, and manufacturers expect this momentum to sustain into the next financial year.
Nomura notes that tractor demand remains healthy, supported by good reservoir levels, farm cash flows and seasonal agricultural activity. GST cuts have also helped sentiment in rural markets.
Electric two-wheelers continue to gain ground. Nomura believes that established players such as TVS Motor, Bajaj Auto and Ather Energy are maintaining healthy shares, while others are seeing some moderation in volumes.
Passenger Vehicles See Broad-Based Momentum
PV industry wholesales are expected to grow strongly in December. Maruti is likely to see a sharp pickup in volumes, with both wholesale and retail market share improving. Mahindra’s SUVs are also set to post healthy growth, aided by lower dealer inventory and new launches such as the XEV 9S, along with the upcoming refreshed XUV700 (7X0).
Tata Motors is expected to report solid growth too, helped by the new Sierra launch, with deliveries beginning in January. Hyundai is likely to post steady gains as well, with retail share improving and the new venue supporting growth in the second half of FY26.
Two-Wheelers To See Robust Growth
The two-wheeler industry is headed for robust year-on-year growth in December. Bajaj, TVS and Hero MotoCorp are all expected to clock healthy increases, supported by exports recovery and domestic demand. Royal Enfield volumes are also likely to rise meaningfully.
One monitorable remains regulatory changes around ABS norms for sub-125cc bikes, where Hero has significant exposure.
CVs To See Uptick In Wholesale Sales
In medium and heavy commercial vehicles, industry wholesales are expected to rise, with Ashok Leyland and Tata Motors’ CV business both posting growth, reinforcing the view that the CV upcycle is gaining strength.
Overall, Nomura says that December looks strong for the auto sector. Cars, two-wheelers, commercial vehicles and tractors are all benefiting from supportive demand drivers, with commercial vehicles showing early signs of a fresh upcycle and EV two-wheelers gradually deepening their presence.
