AI Vs PCs: Why Computer Market May Likely Shrink By Nearly 10% In 2026

The shipments of personal computers may shrink down to as much as 9% by 2026, according to a report from the International Data Corporation. A more conservative ballpark would be to put at 5%, which is still a lot more substantial than the 2.5% drop they had previously projected.

The shortage, which has been ramping up since the middle of October, is expected to increase, and the driving factor for this is the continued expansion of AI infrastructure.

AI companies have increased demand for high-bandwidth (HBM) and high-capacity DDR5 memory components which has lead to major memory manufacturers to pivot away from the conventional DRAM and NAND memory drives used in smartphones, PCs, and other consumer electronics.

The report noted that this restricted the supply of general-purpose memory modules and has spurred price increases for electronics across the globe.

"The rapid expansion of AI infrastructure and workloads is exerting significant pressure on the memory ecosystem. These AI workloads require large amounts of memory, and the shortage, in part, is driven by a reallocation of manufacturing capacity away from consumer electronics toward high-margin memory solutions to support AI," the report said.

The IDC further noted that this phenomenon is expected to persist for the coming years.

This memory supply crunch is in direct contrast to two major industry trends of 'AI PCs' and the Windows 10 end-of-life refresh cycle ( people whose PCs support Windows 10 may no longer be able to use that operating system as Windows is ending support for it leading to users being forced to buy new devices that support Windows 11).

Both users and manufacturers would have to deal with the costs being passed on to them in the face of the memory shortage.

AI PCs would also require more random access memory to run which is running out due to the very gimmick they're being market with.

Gaming PCs are expected to be hit the hardest due to their high memory configurations and cost sensitivity, regional manufacturers as well as hobbyists who wish to build their own PCs will also have to deal with rising prices from tightening supply.

Big original equipment manufacturer such as Dell, HP, Lenovo and ASUS are expected to coast on long term agreements, scale and their foothold in the industry to weather this phenomenon.