ICICI Securities believes HAL ticks all the boxes with healthy orderbook and margins; robust order funnel (probable); and improving execution. The brokerage believes management’s guidance of 8-10% revenue growth in FY26 is a tad conservative and estimate revenue growth to be upwards of 15%. That said, the brokerage prunes its earlier revenue growth estimates of 22-25%, given the timeline of execution and possible delays in the same.
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ICICI Securities Report
Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd.'s Q4 FY25 Ebitda was significantly ahead of our estimate. Key points:
Ebitda margin at 38.6% was aided by higher proportion of RoH revenue;
FY25 closing orderbook stood at a healthy level of Rs 1.84 trillion; and
cost reduction, capacity and capability building remain key focus areas for the management.
Management has guided for revenue growth of 8-10% (seems conservative) and Ebitda/operating margin at healthy 31%/27% for FY26.
Taking cognisance of management’s guidance, we have lowered our FY26/27E EPS by 10%/22%, respectively. That said, considering lower execution risks, we lower our WACC to 10% (earlier 11%), resulting in a revised target price of Rs 6,150 (earlier Rs 5,000). Maintain Buy.
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