Motilal Oswal believes that the food delivery business will remain a balanced duopoly between Eternal and Swiggy, with 20-22% gross order value growth over FY26–27. The brokerage values the FD business at 30x FY27E Ebitda. In quick commerce, the setup looks similar to the prior cycle, though with lower burn intensity and faster margin normalization as dark-store throughput improves.
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Motilal Oswal Report
We continue to view food delivery as a stable duopoly with balanced market shares between Eternal Ltd. and Swiggy Ltd. We model 20-22% gross order value growth over FY26-27 and assign a 30x EV/Ebitda multiple to the food delivery business, reflecting its steady margin trajectory and high user stickiness.
In quick commerce, the setup looks similar to the prior cycle, though the burn intensity is lower and incremental margins should normalize faster as dark-store throughput improves.
At the current juncture, we prefer Swiggy on relative valuation comfort — our implied EV/GMV multiple of 0.5x FY27E for QC represents a ~60% discount to Eternal’s 1.2x, and expect this discount to narrow.
Sustained improvement in Swiggy’s average order values, dark store throughput, and take rates could drive a meaningful profitability re-rating ahead.
We reiterate our Buy rating on Swiggy with a target price of Rs 550, implying a potential upside of 36%, supported by steady FD growth and improving QC unit economics.
We also maintain our Buy rating on Eternal (Zomato) with a target price of Rs 410 (27% upside), as we continue to see structural tailwinds in QC expansion, and execution scale.
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