Margins have been trending lower than expectations for Bank of Baroda, despite a high share of MCLR-linked book. With limited levers to profitability hereon, increased delinquencies in certain RAM segments, and limited provision buffers, Dolat Capital has revised its rating from Buy to ‘Accumulate’, valuing the bank at 0.9x FY27E price/adjusted book value.
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Dolat Capital Report
Bank of Baroda reported weaker than expected net interest income (-7% YoY), with net interest margin at 2.86% (-8 bps QoQ and -24 bps in H2), led by immediate re-pricing of EBLR loans and continued rise in CoD. PAT, however, benefitted from reversal of govt guaranteed security receipts of Rs 4.9 billion and lower tax rate (23%), with RoA at 1.16%. Loan growth at 5% QoQ was broad-based.
Bank expects FY26E NIM to be in-line with FY25 (at 3%), though Q1 FY26E margins will be under pressure. While overall slippages were contained, slippages increased in the MSME segment and PL NPAs continue to rise (mainly digital PL).
We factor in slightly lower NIM, with 3-4% downward revision in estimates for FY26/27E. With margins settling at lower levels, limited levers for incremental profitability and near-nil provision buffers, we revise rating to ‘Accumulate’ from Buy, valuing the bank at 0.9x FY27E P/ABV against RoA/RoE of 1%/15%.
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