Industry demand has been impacted by consumption deferral as consumers prioritized essential purchases to balance budgets amid elevated retail/food inflation. While near-term demand remains challenged, Systematix believes Asian Paints would benefit from a recovery over Q2/H2 FY26 on a weak base, with reversal of deferred demand as inflation eases.
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Systematix Report
Asian Paints Ltd. delivered slightly lower-than-expected volume/ revenue growth, but a bigger miss on operating margins amid muted demand conditions, consumer downtrading to cheaper products and high competitive intensity.
Revenue declined 4% YoY (fitth straight quarter of decline; FY25: -4.5% YoY), with volume +1.8% YoY, flat effective pricing and adverse mix. Management cautioned that demand remains sluggish in Q1 FY26 as well with no meaningful pick-up visible as yet.
Asian Paints expects FY26 revenue growth in single digits with the volume-value gap below 6%. The quarter saw sustained slowdown in urban/ Tier-1,2 markets while tier-3/4 did better; Asian Paints noted that repainting is getting postponed amid weak consumer sentiment, and demand for home construction/ renovation is also subdued. The international (-1.5% YoY) and home décor businesses are facing rough weather as well. Ebitda/ PAT declined 15%/27% YoY in Q4 and 20%/25% in FY25.
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