Bull Market Isn’t Over — Picture Abhi Baaki Hai

Important, in these events, is the continued decimation of the Congress, diluting the influence of Rahul Gandhi to foment trouble. This is critical because the funding from international cabals may now start to question whether to stick with the Congress and the efforts of anti India forces may slow down.

The momentum that had suddenly picked up after the 2024 Lok Sabha elections has run into difficulties now. Alongside Maharashtra, the fine comeback by the BJP in Uttar Pradesh and earlier, the victory in Haryana, should all combine to ignite the sentiments in favour of some expectations that the government may now resume the capex that was promised at the Budget, but that got held over, owing to pending state elections.

Now, with only the Delhi elections in February 2025 ahead of us next year, the expectations of government capex on infra to resume, there should be enough impetus for various sectors ahead. PSU, defence, power, etc. counters that had retraced anywhere between 10–30% during the recent correction, may rebound some. Stalled projects, particularly in election-affected states, may now recommence. These shall have a positive domino effect on the economy.

Important, in these events, is the continued decimation of the Congress, diluting the influence of Rahul Gandhi to foment trouble. This is critical because the funding from international cabals may now start to question whether to stick with the Congress and the efforts of anti India forces may slow down.

The momentum that had suddenly picked up after the 2024 Lok Sabha elections has run into difficulties now. Alongside Maharashtra, the fine comeback by the BJP in Uttar Pradesh and earlier, the victory in Haryana, should all combine to ignite the sentiments in favour of some expectations that the government may now resume the capex that was promised at the Budget, but that got held over, owing to pending state elections.

Now, with only the Delhi elections in February 2025 ahead of us next year, the expectations of government capex on infra to resume, there should be enough impetus for various sectors ahead. PSU, defence, power, etc. counters that had retraced anywhere between 10–30% during the recent correction, may rebound some. Stalled projects, particularly in election-affected states, may now recommence. These shall have a positive domino effect on the economy.

FII outflow has been a major bugbear over the last few months. But with political stability returning, chances are that the consistent selling by the FIIs may start receding. Our local money has been, so far, more than a match for the FII selling and if the selling were to reduce, this factor may flip to become an important flow factor that can once again influence the trends.

Of course, there is some uncertainty on Donald Trump's policies and those will be known once he takes office on Jan. 20. Hence, there may be continued volatility in the markets on the back of news flow and fund flows.

What China shall do with its currency would also be a big concern, as Trump actions will be targeting a strong dollar. How RBI can handle that delicate issue of our currency will also be playing out across the coming few months.

By February 2025, we will also have the new Budget and this time, we think there shall be some new expectations that may get built. It is quite possible too, that with Modi 3.0 in place and state elections in favour, and no other elections set backs to be expected, the government may try for some bolder steps to propel the economy forward, through budgetary or other proposals.

If the markets remain in some consolidations until the budget, it is quite possible that we may see good, strong new uptrends emerge out of fresh triggers to grow the economy. This bull market ain't done yet. It is just taking a breather. Picture abhi baaki hai, bhai! 

CK Narayan is an expert in technical analysis, the founder of Growth Avenues, Chartadvise, and NeoTrader, and the chief investment officer of Plus Delta Portfolios.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent the views of NDTV Profit or its editorial team.