Oil Steadies With Trade War Risks And US-Iran Talks To The Fore

Oil steadied as traders weighed the latest US moves in the global trade war, as well as “constructive” talks between Washington and Tehran.

Brent edged above $65 a barrel following back-to-back weekly losses, while West Texas Intermediate was near $62. President Donald Trump paused import duties on some electronics, but he said he’ll still apply tariffs to the sector in due course.

Easing tensions with Iran, meanwhile, may offer prospects for higher oil volumes. Weekend talks in Oman marked the first top-level engagement since 2022 and signaled a renewed effort to resolve a years-long standoff over Tehran’s nuclear program. Both sides agreed to meet again.

Crude has been dragged down in April as the trade war — especially the confrontation between the US and China — stokes fears of a global recession that would hurt energy demand. A surprise OPEC+ decision to bring back shuttered output more quickly than expected has added to the bearishness.

The volatile trading has reanimated concerns that global oil supply will run ahead of demand this year. Traders will parse a monthly outlook due from OPEC later Monday for clues about underlying conditions. The International Energy Agency will weigh in on Tuesday, including a first snapshot of 2026.

“While the market has already priced in some future inventory builds, we expect large surpluses,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts including Daan Struyven said in a note, estimating a glut of 800,000 barrels a day this year. Brent is expected to average $63 over the rest of 2025, they said.

Oil’s losses this month have formed part of an intense global market reaction to the evolving trade war, with most commodities and equities selling off. There have also been unusual declines in the US dollar and Treasuries, assets that usually function as havens during periods of stress.

Prices:

• Brent for June inched up 0.6% to $65.15 a barrel at 10:21 a.m. in London. Earlier, futures dropped as much as 0.6%

• WTI for May delivery was up 0.6% at $61.85 a barrel