Economic Survey 2025: GDP Growth Estimated Between 6.3% And 6.8% For FY26

GDP growth is estimated to range between 6.3% and 6.8% in the financial year 2026, according to the Economic Survey 2025 tabled in the Parliament on Friday. This would mean sub-7% growth for India for the second straight year.

For FY25, GDP and GVA are estimated to grow 6.4%, according to the first advance estimates released by the Central Statistics Office ahead of the Union Budget 2025. This will be the slowest pace of growth in four years. "Despite global uncertainty, India's real GDP growth of 6.4% in FY25 remains close to the decadal average," the survey stated.

Geopolitical risks remain elevated due to the ongoing conflicts and tensions, which in turn pose significant risks to the global economic outlook, the survey said.

• India’s economic prospects for FY26 are balanced, stated the survey.

• A trend analysis of quarterly de-seasonalised national income data reveals that all sectors are performing well.

• Domestically, the translation of order books of private capital goods sector into sustained investment pick-up, improvements in consumer confidence, and corporate wage pick-up will be key to promoting growth.

• Rural demand backed by a rebound in agricultural production, an anticipated easing of food inflation and a stable macro-economic environment provide an upside to near-term growth.

• Private sector investment growth may have remained subdued thus far in FY25, on account of the domestic political timetable, global uncertainties and overcapacities.

• Overall, India will need to improve its global competitiveness through grassroots-level structural reforms and deregulation to reinforce its medium-term growth potential.

• Looking ahead, global policy changes could influence India’s external trade. The evolving trade stance of a few major economies could affect key Indian export sectors such as chemicals, machinery, textiles, and electronics. In the short term, diversifying export markets is essential, while medium-term efforts should focus on increasing market share.

• Over the long term, India must position itself as a strategic partner in high-value sectors like biotechnology and semiconductors.

• By capitalising on the global infancy of AI, India has the opportunity to prepare its labour force for a future defined by collaboration between human and machine intelligence.

Lowering the cost of business through deregulation will make a significant contribution to accelerating economic growth and employment, amid unprecedented global challenges, the survey also stated.