Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica, nicknamed the Doomsday Glacier, is losing ice faster than earlier models projected, and two new studies suggest its melt may be larger and harder to reverse than scientists believed.
Melt That Will Not Stop
Researchers led by the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) ran three computer models in which ocean-driven melting beneath Thwaites and neighbouring Pine Island Glacier was switched off.
The study, published in Geophysical Research Letters, found that Pine Island recovered and began thickening again. Thwaites kept losing ice, though more slowly as it thinned, and is expected to do so for at least 150 years even under the most extreme ocean cooling imagined.
"This ice loss cannot be undone or prevented by simply cooling the ocean," said lead author Rosie Williams, according to Euronews.
The findings matter because oceans are unlikely to cool soon. Sea surface temperatures outside the polar regions averaged 21.1°C on 22 August, a daily record, and El Niño is still strengthening in the Pacific.
Faster Than Modelled
A separate study from the University of California, Irvine and NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, published in Nature Communications, looked at where the ice lifts off the seabed.
Most models treat this "grounding line" as a fixed boundary.
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Satellite data shows it is a grounding zone, sometimes miles wide, where tides push seawater in and out and carry warm water deep beneath the ice.
With that included, Thwaites could add up to 1.2 inches (about 3cm) to sea levels by 2100, roughly double earlier estimates, even without further warming.
The study also found a 60% chance that the glacier will come unpinned from an underwater ridge called the Mouginot Ridge by the end of the century, after which retreat is likely to accelerate.
The Stakes
The Florida-sized glacier currently contributes about 4% of global sea-level rise. Its total collapse would add an estimated 65cm. Because it also holds back the wider West Antarctic ice sheet, its loss could ultimately raise seas by about 3 metres, according to CNN.
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Every centimetre of rise exposes roughly six million more people to coastal flooding, Euronews reported.
Open Questions
Researchers not involved in the work urge caution. BAS marine geophysicist Robert Larter said much remains unknown about grounding-zone processes.
The UC Irvine team plans to deploy instruments at the glacier in 2028 to gather direct data.
Eric Rignot, a study author at UC Irvine, said that even with deep emission cuts, higher seas should be expected. Cutting emissions would still limit the damage.
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