The ongoing Middle East conflict could trigger a prolonged oil crisis, with global energy flows at risk unless Iran agrees to ease tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, according to foreign policy analyst Fareed Zakaria.
In an exclusive interview with Rahul Kanwal, Zakaria warned that it would be “very difficult to open the Strait of Hormuz without Iran's acceptance,” adding that Tehran is likely to “continue to play hardball”.
The narrow waterway carries more than one-fifth of the world's oil supply, making it one of the most critical chokepoints for global energy markets. With the war expected to continue and no clear exit strategy from Donald Trump, Zakaria believes oil prices are likely to rise further.
“We seem to be in the middle of an escalating trap,” he said, describing the Middle East war as a “stress test of US power” and an unusually complex conflict with growing geopolitical consequences.
Trump has sought support from allies in the European Union and Arab partners to help reopen the strategic waterway. However, the response from allies has so far been uncertain. The US President has warned that a lack of support could have serious implications for the future of NATO.
Zakaria also argued that internal dynamics in Iran have hardened over time. While Iran historically operated through a balance of power within its political system, he said the country is increasingly dominated by the military establishment.
“Iran has effectively become a military dictatorship,” he said, noting that foreign attacks often strengthen nationalist sentiment within the country.
The analyst suggested that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears determined to weaken Iran strategically, but the conflict could instead lead to prolonged instability and chaos across the region.
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Despite the tensions, Iran has so far avoided large-scale attacks on energy infrastructure, including oil fields in Saudi Arabia, Zakaria noted. However, he cautioned that securing maritime routes in the Gulf would remain extremely challenging. Even locating and clearing potential naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz would be difficult, while any attempt by the US to capture strategic assets such as Iran's Kharg Island would require a substantial military base.
Zakaria added that the conflict is also reshaping global geopolitics. He said the US risks being distracted by another prolonged military engagement, potentially benefiting rivals such as Xi Jinping, who continues to modernise China's military while prioritising economic growth.
Asian economies, including India, are already feeling the consequences through higher energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty. Zakaria noted that India's earlier economic momentum had been strong before the conflict escalated, but the war is now imposing broader economic pressures across the region.
“The world is feeling the cost of the war far more than the United States,” he said, adding that the conflict signals a shift in the traditional global balance of power and marks a turning point in international geopolitics.
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