US President Donald Trump is not on the ballot on Tuesday, but the US midterm elections will work like a verdict on his second term.
If Republicans lose control of the House of Representatives or the Senate, his ability to pass laws and approve appointments weakens, and Congress could open investigations.
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Polls point to five issues that could decide the outcome.
The Mood Going In
Trump's approval rating is weak. A Reuters/Ipsos poll in September put it at 32%, the lowest of his political career.
Polls also show his support among Republican voters holding firmer than among the wider public, so the key question is how many independents and wavering Republicans turn out.
1. The Iran War
The US-Iran conflict began in February. It has pushed petrol and diesel prices sharply higher. That links a foreign conflict to household bills.
A Gallup survey released this week found the economy, healthcare and the Iran war are voters' main concerns, and all three currently favour Democrats. Multiple surveys show the war growing more unpopular.
The administration is pursuing talks while keeping military options open. Axios has reported that Trump prefers negotiations for now, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is pressing for strikes after the election. Trump has said he wants to avoid more deaths if possible.
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2. Inflation And The Cost Of Living
Inflation means prices rising faster than wages, so the same money buys less. An NBC News poll found 48% of voters named inflation and cost of living as the most important issue, and 62% disapproved of Trump's handling of it.
Trump has tried to pivot to the economy, with administration officials going on an "affordability tour". Republicans argue that tax cuts and lower energy prices will help families.
Many voters, however, are judging by what they pay at the pump and the supermarket.
3. Healthcare
Most Americans get health insurance through employers, but millions buy it through marketplaces created by the Affordable Care Act (ACA), often called Obamacare.
Congress adjourned last year without extending enhanced ACA subsidies, so premiums rose for about 22 million people (2.2 crore). A fight over the money led to a record 43-day government shutdown.
Republican leaders argued the extra subsidies were pandemic-era spending that should end. Several Republicans from swing districts backed an extension.
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An October KFF survey found voters trust Democrats over Republicans on healthcare costs by 42% to 22%. Medicaid, the government insurance programme for low-income people, is also in play because of cuts in Trump's tax-and-spending law.
4. Artificial Intelligence
AI has become a voting issue for the first time. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found 69% of voters want stricter AI regulation, and 57% believe the administration is not taking AI risks seriously enough.
Nearly half of respondents in a Politico poll said AI will likely eliminate more jobs than it creates.
Trump has prioritised keeping America ahead of China over tighter rules. Industry money is also flowing. One pro-AI super PAC, Leading the Future, has raised $125 million to oppose pro-regulation candidates.
5. Data Centres
Data centres are the giant warehouses of computers that power AI. They use enormous amounts of electricity. Electricity prices jumped 6.9% in 2025, and data centres account for roughly 40% of the growth in demand.
A Quinnipiac poll found about 73% of voters oppose a data centre in their community.
Trump has defended the buildout. He said voters "will only have yourselves to blame" if they kill data centre development, and that China "could not be happier" about the backlash.
Vice President JD Vance said the backlash arises where data centres mean higher electricity bills. Trump and some governors are pushing data centres to buy or generate their own power.
How They Connect
Each issue lands as a money issue: petrol, groceries, premiums and power bills. That is why analysts say the election may turn on cost of living more than on any single policy fight.
What Could Change The Picture
Polls are not results. Turnout, local races and late-deciding voters can move outcomes, and Republicans point to the administration's record on immigration and crime as strengths.
Results begin arriving on election night, but close contests can take days to call.
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