Trade Setup For Nov 5: Can Nifty Cross 24,100? Sub-$100 Oil Likely To Fuel Bulls' Charge

Experts note that market direction will depend on quarterly earnings, crude oil trends, developments in the Middle East, US bond yields and FII flows.

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Summary is AI-generated, newsroom-reviewed
  • Sensex and Nifty 50 closed over 0.5% higher for the fifth consecutive session on Wednesday
  • Gift Nifty surged 1.68% to 24,642 points indicating a positive start to Indian equities
  • Brent crude prices fell below $100 a barrel for the first time since October 7
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As the Indian stock market indices, the Sensex and Nifty 50, continued its rally for the fifth consecutive session, closing over half a percent higher each on Wednesday, technical experts expect the momentum to continue, while 24050–24070 range remains a key hurdle.

This comes as Gift Nifty surges 1.68% to 24,642 points, indicating a possible postive start to the Indian equities, likely to follow gains of the Wall Street, which experienced a massive rally following the US midterm elections. Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1,166.6 points, or 2.25%, to 52,953.38,  S&P 500 rose 134 points, or 1.78%, to 7,703.67, while the Nasdaq Composite surged 602 points, or 2.37%, to 25,974.41. Meanwhile, Brent crude prices fell below $100 a barrel for the first time since October 7, driven by the results of the US midterm elections and heightening hopes of diplomatic talks with Iran.

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According to Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, "Nifty closed above its 200-day EMA for the first time since 13 August, while comfortably holding above its 20-day and 50-day EMAs. The upward sloping of key moving averages points towards improving price structure. The RSI continues to hold above 60, while the rising MACD histogram reinforces the strengthening momentum and improving directional bias."

READ | Brent Falls Below $100 First Time In 2 Months As Democratic Win Fuels De-Escalation Hopes

In terms of outlook, he added, "The 23850–23870 zone will serve as immediate support, with a breakdown potentially triggering short-term profit booking towards 23,700. On the upside, 24050–24070 remains a key hurdle. A sustained breakout above this range could attract further short-covering and propel the index towards 24230."

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On Wednesday, the Sensex rallied 383.55 points, or 0.50%, to close at 77,301.40, while the Nifty 50 settled 149.75 points, or 0.63%, higher at 23,960.60. Broader markets outperformed the frontliers, as the Nifty Smallcap 100 surged 2% and the Nifty Midcap 100 indices jumped 1.55%. Except Nifty IT, all other sectoral indices ended in the green, driven by Nify Media, Nifty Metal, Nifty Realty, Nifty FMCG, Nifty Oil & Gas and Nifty Auto indices.

What should investors look at?

Speaking on th factors investors must focus on, Sunny Agrawal, Head of Fundamental Research at SBI Securities said, "market direction will hinge on quarterly earnings, crude oil trends, developments in the Middle East, US bond yields and FII flows. FIIs remained net buyers of Rs 6,837 Cr on November 3, while DIIs were net sellers of Rs 3,679 Cr. While the recent recovery has improved market sentiment, sustained institutional inflows and broader sectoral participation will be crucial for maintaining the positive momentum."

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READ | Stock Market Today: Gift Nifty To US Midterm Elections; Five Key Factors That May Drive Sensex, Nifty 50 On November 4

Bank Nifty View

Positive momentum was also witnessed on Bank Nifty on Wednesday, with the index ending at 55,913.60, up by 373.55 points, or 0.67%.

According to Shah, "The index moved above its 50-day EMA for the first time since 4 September, signalling improving buying interest. Despite the recovery, the broader positional structure remains range-bound, with a decisive breakout required to establish a sustained directional trend. The RSI is approaching 60, while the MACD continues to improve, indicating gradual momentum building."

On outlook, he added, "The 55400–55500 zone will provide immediate support, while 56500–56600 remains a crucial resistance band. A sustained move above this range could unlock further upside momentum towards 57000."

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