Happy Dhanteras, everyone. Shine bright.
The global markets though, are not able to shine. The exception in the large markets is, India, which has seen inflows of nearly $4 billion in less than 6 days.
But, the newsmakers are global markets. The Nasdaq cracked on Thursday, a day after the midterm election verdict was out. Selling was concentrated in chip stocks. The S&P 500 excluding technology fell about 2.5 per cent while chip stocks dropped nearly 11 per cent. The $VIX spiked 63 per cent - the fifth-largest jump in recent history. Asia felt the heat. One possible spark was a post from Democrat Congresswoman Yassamin Ansari that drew more than 14 million views: "Top of the Democratic agenda on day 1 needs to be a pause on advanced AI development, regulation of this out of control industry, and a ban on artificial superintelligence." Several other members of Congress agreed. The sell-off was steep enough that Jensen Huang dropped out of the top 10 billionaires index.
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History offers one counterpoint. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has returned an average of 17.2 per cent in the year after midterms.
What happened in the US Midterm elections?
Democrats swept both chambers of Congress in the 2026 midterms, flipping at least seven Senate seats and more than 30 House seats while Republicans failed to take a single Democratic-held seat, atleast in early counts. Turnout reached roughly 122.7 million ballots, or about 48.8 per cent of eligible voters - the second-highest midterm participation in more than a century. The gains cut deep into Republican territory - a Senate seat in Texas (the first Democrat to do so statewide since the 1990s), Kansas's first Democratic senator since 1932, and Democrats also flipped seats in Iowa, Ohio, South Carolina and Maine. The wave also delivered Democratic governors in several states Trump won two years earlier, giving the party control of both chambers for the remainder of the presidential term.
The focal point of the elections was always about what will happen geopolitically. Less than 48 hours post the verdict, Donald Trump said he would rather not destroy the rest of Iran, if possible, but maybe he would have to, and that people would know soon enough. Separately, Iran sent the United States a nuclear proposal via Qatar. Sources told Reuters the proposal would be discussed only after the US meets Iran's seven demands, and that Washington was reviewing it without offering further details. The situation brings to mind Benjamin Disraeli's observation that nothing can resist a will which will stake even existence upon its fulfillment.
Also Read | Trump's Iran War Tone Changes After Midterm Drubbing: 'Would Rather Not Destroy Rest Of The Country'
Santander flagged a large financing gap. Their note said the world faces a shortfall of around 30 trillion euros over the next five years, mainly for the energy transition but also for AI and defence. Preliminary estimates for 2026 to 2030 put total investment needs near 50 trillion euros. After accounting for available financing and expected growth, the gap comes to roughly 30 trillion euros.
Among Indian companies, Adani Ports agreed to acquire 100 per cent of Netherlands-headquartered Evos, Europe's second-largest independent liquid storage operator. The enterprise value is 2.56 billion euros, or roughly Rs 27,200 crore. Evos reported a 56 per cent EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) margin, higher than Adani Ports' recent international ports margin of about 44.8 per cent in the first half of FY27. The deal gives the company a presence in key energy and industrial hubs, including the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp region, and expands its global footprint to 28 ports and terminals across 10 countries.
Titan's consolidated profit more than doubled to Rs 2,393 crore in the second quarter of FY27, with revenue from operations up 23.54 per cent to Rs 20,337 crore. Britannia posted 15 per cent revenue growth, a 15-quarter high, and 13 per cent volume growth, a 25-quarter high, with acceleration across bakery and adjacency portfolios. LIC's second-quarter net profit rose 20 per cent to Rs 12,076 crore on higher premium income. CP Plus (Aditya Infotech) reported a multifold jump in profit with a 90 per cent rise in revenue. Shiprocket posted its first-ever quarterly profit.
NSE's revenue fell 10.8 per cent quarter-on-quarter to Rs 4,067 crore, with margins at 75.7 per cent and profit down 17.4 per cent to Rs 2,578 crore; the stock trades at 36 times FY28 estimated earnings. Lloyds Metals posted 55 per cent revenue growth to Rs 5,673 crore and 85 per cent profit growth to Rs 1,023 crore. Awfis Space grew revenue 19.6 per cent and nearly doubled profit, while DAM Capital saw income jump 81 per cent. Clean Max Enviro reported 37 per cent revenue growth and 86 per cent profit growth. Neuland Labs saw revenue and profit decline on margin pressure. Global Health, Metropolis, Vijaya Diagnostic and Aarti Drugs delivered solid growth with margin expansion, while SEAMEC, GNG Electronics, Pokarna and Timex also reported strong numbers. SKF India and Dreamfolks saw sharp revenue drops. National Land Monetisation Corporation targets Rs 15,000 crore of land monetisation in FY27.
On the brokerage side, Jefferies maintained a Buy on Molbio Diagnostics and raised its target to Rs 1,715 from Rs 1,600. Citi cut FY27-29 EBITDA estimates for PI Industries by 29-40 per cent on weaker margins, kept a Sell rating, and reduced its target to Rs 1,595 from Rs 2,375. On Hindalco's Novelis, Citi expects the tariff impact to normalise in FY28, targets $350-400 million in annual cost savings by then, and sees leverage declining to 4x by the end of FY27, aided by insurance recoveries and lower capex.
Far from the equity markets, Paraguay offered a different kind of cautionary tale. Earlier this week the country's largest digital bank, Ueno, was placed into resolution by the central bank after its solvency ratio collapsed below half the legal minimum because of related-party lending and accounting problems. Roughly three million customers — about 60 per cent of the adult population — suddenly lost access to their accounts, cards and the app. Hundreds of millions in public funds, including substantial pension money from the state social security institute, sat trapped. The central bank president, who had previously run the bank's predecessor, resigned at the request of President Santiago Peña, and prosecutors detained eight senior executives, including the bank's president and key figures from the controlling business group. Customers lined up outside shuttered branches and took to the streets in Asunción; some protests turned tense. The crisis escalated into a political meltdown that ended with Peña's resignation on 5 November amid impeachment pressure over his past ties to the bank's owners. Deposit guarantees of up to about $38,000 per person remain in place as authorities work to transfer accounts. The episode shows how quickly a fast-growing digital lender can freeze a large share of a country's savings when oversight and related-party risks go unchecked.
Have a super Diwali weekend everyone, and be kind and generous. Our beautiful country deserves that.
Niraj
Also Read | Diwali Stock Picks 2026: Titan, BSE Kotak Mahindra Bank Among Motilal Oswal's Top 10 Bets For Samvat 2083
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