A host of global and domestic brokerages have rolled out fresh views on Polycab, Petronet LNG, Orkla India, Nykaa and several other companies on Friday.
Jefferies on Polycab
- Maintain Buy; Hike TP to Rs 9485 from Rs 9225
- 'Power'Ful Play; Retain as Top Pick
- Post +24% rally from Jan-lows, Polycab at 37x is in-line with its 5-year avg
- While the industry hiked prices by 8-10% in Dec-Q, Polycab strategised to defer hikes to Mar26-Q to protect demand
- Est +25% YoY sales in Q4
- View no major impact from new forays in Wires - CROMPTON, Bajaj set to outsource manufacturing
- FMEG positive margin, strong order books in RDSS and Bharat Net, and EHV are key drivers
- Est FY25-28e EPS CAGR at +25%
Investec on Petronet LNG
- Maintain Buy with TP of Rs 400
- Correction overdone; reiterate Top Pick
- Middle East tensions and Force Majeure declarations have sparked supply concerns
- Analysis suggests even a 30-day disruption would trim annual volumes by 4% and EBITDA by 6%
- Following a ~13% correction, the stock now trades at 9x FY27E PE with an attractive ~5% dividend yield
- With fundamentals strengthening and downside quantified, reiterate Petronet as top pick for 2026
Citi on Orkla India
- Initiate Buy with TP of Rs 750
- Regional Leadership, Category Tailwinds
- Well-positioned to capitalise on the formalisation of spices and convenience foods markets
- International expansion and M&A potential
- Strong brands with leadership across core markets
- Category tailwinds to drive long‑term compounding
- Increasing product assortment in core markets
- Expanding distribution; Strong execution capabilities
GS on Dr Reddy
- Maintain Neutral with TP of Rs 1225
- Semaglutide launch: Significant opportunity
- Renewed its emphasis on the Innovation portfolio
GS on Gland Pharma
- Maintain Sell with TP of Rs 1525
- Company believes its 12-13% growth guidance for FY27 as well as 15% CAGR guidance assumes conservative uptick in GLP-1 numbers
- Aspires to take the CDMO business contribution from 10% today to 20% over the medium
MS on Asia EM Equity - Daniel Blake
- Downgrade India to Equal-weight from Overweight
- Nascent recovery, but macro uncertainty
- Move to an Equal-weight stance versus Asia/Emerging markets, given the wide uncertainty around geopolitical developments
- Note the structural reduction of India's oil intensity and improved macro-stability position leave it less exposed than historically
- However, with uncertainty also still swirling around AI disruption and absolute valuations still expensive, we expect it will take some time
- Potentially a peak in the tech cycle for Korea and Taiwan - before international investors reposition towards India
- Removes Maruti Suzuki from focus list
UBS on IndiGo
- Maintain Buy; Cut TP to Rs 5480 from Rs 6170
- Earnings sensitivities amidst ongoing conflict
- Ongoing conflict could weigh on airlines' ASK in the near term
- Rising crude poses additional earnings risk
- INR weakness vs USD poses medium-term headwinds
UBS on Banks
- See risk of higher inflation and consumption decline owing to energy shock
- SCENARIO A: Oil price up <+10USD; UBSe EPS impact of +1% to -3%
- SCENARIO B: Oil price up by +20-30USD; UBSe EPS impact of -4% to -8%
- See relatively higher sensitivity for mid sized private banks and SOEs vs larger pvt banks
- AXIS and KOTAK Mahindra are preferred picks
- Also have Buy ratings on ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Bank of Baroda and CANARA Bank
HSBC on Maruti
- Maintain Buy; Cut TP to Rs 17400 from Rs 18000
- Growth resilience vs margin headwinds
- Commodity cost index is up nearly 20% vs Q3 levels, which is a nearly 200 bps margin headwind
- In a scenario where there is no reversal in commodity prices, Maruti may have to consider price hikes soon
- Demand sustained; Maruti maintains market share despite capacity constraint
Jefferies on Navin Fluorine
- Maintain Buy with TP of Rs 7800
- Hosted Vishad Mafatlal - Chairman, Nitin Kulkarni- MD and Anish Ganatra- CFO
- See multiple growth levers in CDMO
- Promising data center cooling solution, strong HFC volume growth and potential new molecule in Spec Chem anchor strong growth ambition
- Expect Navin to deliver 20%+ revenue Cagr and 30% Ebitda margin over FY26-28 as operating leverage benefits play out
Jefferies on Infosys
- Maintain Hold with TP of Rs 1290
- Hosted Sandeep Mahindroo and Sweta Sheth for investor meetings
- Infosys highlighted that demand environment is steady and has reiterated its FY26 growth guidance of 3-3.5%
- While macro uncertainty and AI-led deflation may impact growth in the near-term
- Infosys is confident that AI will be net positive over long-term
- Infosys expects margins to remain at current levels even after investments in AI
- Expects FCF conversion to remain above 100% in FY26
Nomura on Real Estate
- Stable demand amid volatile macro backdrop
- Demand was resilient for top branded developers despite an uncertain macro backdrop
- Demand in key cities such as Bangalore, Mumbai and NCR was stable
- Demand has been resilient only for projects that are priced appropriately
- These takeaways indicate the real estate cycle remains in a mature phase rather than a slowdown phase
- Maintain view that the developers remain on track to meet/ beat guidance
Nomura on Autos
- Tractor emission norms (Trem V) may be delayed
- Positive for M&M as sharp cost impact risk deferred till 2032
- The market was concerned about the risk of sharp price hikes and the related demand impact on Tractor volumes
- With the delayed implementation, medium-term demand visibility improves
- Factor in 24%/5%/5% volume growth for M&M's tractor sales over FY26F/27F/28F
HSBC on Paints
- Cost inflation is back after almost four years
- Look at past cycles to assess the interplay of volumes, prices and margins
- Price hikes could lead to a narrowing of the volume-value gap, but the market and competitive structure is different now
- Retain Hold ratings on both Asian Paints and Berger Paints, as structural issues remain
- Asian Paints – Maintain Hold; Cut TP to Rs 2600 from Rs 2900
- Berger Paints – Maintain Hold; Cut TP to Rs 500 from Rs 540
CLSA Price Action – Laurence Balanco
- This week's weakness has taken the Nifty back towards support provided by the early February lows
- Just below this, shelf of support is at the 23,700-23,800 area
- From a longer-term perspective, as long as price action holds above the 23,700-23,800 support zone, it ultimately provides the platform for the powerful advance of more than 40%
- It would take a break above the 26,277–26,341 resistance zone would support an initial upside target of 28,700–28,800
- See scope to extend toward a longer-term objective of 31,600–31,700
- In the near-term further ranging action between 24,300-24,500 and 26,277-26,341 is expected
- Clearly a break below the 23,700-23,800 support zone would be a negative event
- Such a move would negate the outline of the cup-and-handle consolidation pattern
CLSA on India Tyres
- Tyre margin cycle to peak
- Geopolitical events leading to raw material cost spiking up
- 400bps potential gross-margin hit driven by elevated raw material price in FY27
- Hit on gross margin could bring down EPS by 25-40% for FY27
Macquarie on Nykaa
- Maintain Underperform; Hike TP to Rs 210 from Rs 150
- Believe beauty growth is not sustainable
- Nykaa's beauty performance upside has been led by stronger growth in beauty brands, particularly the Dot & Key skincare portfolio
- Think it will be difficult to drive Nykaa.com third-party brand sales and mirror Dot & Key's growth playbook with its other owned brands
- See 90x EV/FY27E pre-IndAS-Ebitda as not adequately factoring growth risks
Jefferies on Shriram Finance
- Maintain Buy with TP of Rs 1220
- Healthy Earnings Momentum Ahead
- CV demand (incl used) stays healthy
- Reiterated 18-20% AUM growth guidance for FY27-28
- Cost of Funds can fall 80 bps and lift spreads by 20-25 bps by FY28
- Collections are good so far.
- Expect AUM growth to improve to 18% in FY27 (16% FY26e) as new CV disbursements pick up
- NIMs should expand & may surprise positively
- Credit cost should be steady; expect earnings momentum to be healthy
- Valuations seem reasonable
Jefferies Greed & Fear – Chris Wood
- FII buying trigger will most likely be a sudden conviction that the semiconductor cycle has peaked which for now remains lacking
- The other way foreign investors are most likely to return to India in size is a sharp correction triggered by a sudden cessation in domestic mutual fund inflows
- Multiple data points suggest that the best story for the stock market remains
- India's dynamic eco-system of small and medium-sized quoted companies, which compares favourably with many other emerging markets
- Equity valuations in India should always be seen in the context of the country's closed capital account
- Investment in Manappuram Finance will be removed and replaced by an investment in the consumer finance company Tata Capital
Kotak Securities on Hospital
- International footfalls under the lens
- Expect a limited impact on hospital coverage on account of travel disruptions due to the ongoing Middle East war
- Apart from the Middle East, also monitor the impact on medical value travel (MVT) from Africa, given that most flight connectivity is via the Middle East
- Exposure is high for Artemis, Max, Fortis, Medanta and Yatharth
- Excluding Artemis, MVT from the Middle East and Africa constitutes just 1-4% of overall sales
- The contribution from Iran and Israel is negligible
- If the situation eases soon, companies might largely be able to recoup at least the elective procedures
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