Nomura said a marginal hike in aviation-turbine-fuel prices is likely to hurt the margins of oil marketing companies. At current prices, the brokerage estimates that OMCs would lose around Rs 64 per litre on domestic ATF sales, implying a marketing loss of approximately $109 per barrel on such sales.
Nomura noted that ATF accounts for only 2–6% of total marketing volumes for OMCs. However, similar to petrol and diesel retailing, OMCs dominate the ATF market with a share of over 90%. The brokerage estimates that about 65% of India's total ATF sales are to domestic airlines.
ATF prices for domestic airlines were raised by a calibrated 8.5% on Wednesday, instead of more than doubling as warranted by a war-driven surge in global oil prices, even as rates for commercial LPG and premium petrol were also increased amid firm energy trends. ATF or jet fuel for domestic carriers was hiked by Rs 8,289.04 per kilolitre, or 8.56%, to Rs 1,04,927.18 per kl from Rs 96,638.14 per kl last month, according to state-owned oil firms.
Domestic airlines will pay half of what foreign airlines, as well as other carriers such as non-scheduled, ad hoc, and charter, would pay. For them, the prices have gone up by Rs 1,10,703.08 per kl, or 114.5%, to Rs 2,07,341.22 per kl, reports PTI.
Based on prevailing prices, Nomura estimates annualised losses on ATF sales of around Rs 23,600 crore for Indian Oil Corp., Rs 9,500 crore for Bharat Petroleum Corp. and Rs 5,300 crore for Hindustan Petroleum Corp.
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Nomura On City Gas Distributors
On city gas distributors, Nomura said Gujarat Gas Ltd. may be the worst hit due to its higher reliance on short‑term and spot liquefied-natural-gas procurement, where prices have doubled since the war began on Feb. 28, 2026. The brokerage also said that commercial LPG prices have been hiked by around 10%, while OMCs continue to incur losses on domestic LPG cylinders. Separately, Nomura noted that the windfall tax is not applicable to Reliance's SEZ refinery.
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