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Prabhudas Lilladher Report
Nestle India Ltd. gave 10 Mantras to sustain growth which includes-
huge scope to increase penetration across segments,
distribution reach (reaches two/three of addressable households)
innovations (120 innovations in seven years, 10 in pipeline with 6.1% of sales) and
RURBAN led growth (rising accessibility and affordability).
Nestle is building capabilities to sustain double digit growth by-
significant capex program of Rs 50 billion,
continued investment in distribution expansion and supply chain,
new innovations and categories like pet care, millets etc.
Nestle is targeting to gain from a shift in not only growth of food and beverage market but a 20 times gap which exists between branded and overall food market.
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We believe input cost inflation remains a near term challenge given coffee, sugar and milk inflation and global geopolitical uncertainty although it aims to reduce impact by efficient sourcing, supply chain, manufacturing and distribution efficiencies.
Long term growth drivers remain intact, led by-
sustained expansion in rural reach (~20-25% of sales),
capacity increase in Maggi and confectionary,
huge scope of growth in segments like coffee, ready-to-drink, chocolates and pet care and
channels of future like e-commerce (6.6% of revenues).
We estimate 12.2% profit after tax compound annual growth rate over CY23-25.
We expect steady returns in near term despite rich valuations of 63.1 times September 2025 earnings per share.
Maintain 'Accumulate' with a discounted cash flow based target price of Rs 25,741 (unchanged).
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