- JPMorgan initiates coverage on Ather Energy with an Overweight rating and Rs 1,570 target price
- Ather Energy shares rose 255% in 12 months, with JPMorgan forecasting 27% further upside
- Electric two-wheeler penetration in India is expected to grow from 7% in FY26 to 20% by FY31
JPMorgan has initiated coverage on Ather Energy with an 'Overweight' rating and a target price of Rs 1,570, arguing that the electric two-wheeler maker still has room to run despite the stock already emerging as a multibagger over the past year.
Shares of Ather Energy have rallied over 255% in the last 12 months, climbing from a low of Rs 347.30 to a record high of Rs 1,296.70, as investors bet on India's fast-growing electric mobility market. Even after the sharp run-up, JPMorgan sees 27% upside from current levels.
The brokerage described Ather as a "pure play on the fastest-growing category in Indian two-wheelers", citing its integrated ecosystem spanning vehicle manufacturing, battery technology, software and charging infrastructure.
JPMorgan expects electric two-wheeler penetration in India to rise from 7% in FY26 to 20% by FY31, driven by lower total cost of ownership, improving consumer acceptance and greater market consolidation. It estimates the domestic electric two-wheeler industry will grow at a 32% CAGR over the period, significantly outpacing the broader two-wheeler market.
The brokerage believes Ather is well positioned to outgrow the industry. It expects the company's market share to expand from 17% in FY26 to 23% by FY31, supported by the launch of its new "EL" platform and a threefold increase in manufacturing capacity to around 1.4 million units annually.
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JPMorgan also expects Ather's premium positioning and software-led business model to drive profitability. It forecasts EBITDA break-even by FY28 and double-digit EBITDA margins by FY31, helped by higher operating leverage and strong gross margins.
Valuing the company at 35 times FY31 EV/EBITDA, JPMorgan arrived at a September 2027 target price of Rs 1,570, implying 27% upside.
The brokerage, however, flagged risks including slower EV adoption, potential GST hikes on electric vehicles, price competition, higher battery costs, delays in capacity expansion and execution risks around the launch of the "EL" platform.
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