- Jefferies raised Coal India's target price to Rs 500 from Rs 485 with a buy rating
- March quarter showed EBITDA 14% above estimates with better pricing and e-auction volumes
- Dispatch volumes fell 1% year on year, but average selling price rose 4% quarter on quarter
Coal India Ltd. received a higher target price from Jefferies after the brokerage said the miner posted a stronger-than-expected March-quarter performance, helped by better pricing and higher e-auction volumes.
The brokerage retained its buy rating and raised the target price to Rs 500 from Rs 485. With the stock last at Rs 454.50, that implies potential upside of about 10%.
The upgrade followed what Jefferies said was an EBITDA beat driven largely by stronger fuel supply agreement realisations and a rise in e-auction sales. Cash EBITDA rose 8% from a year earlier and came in 14% above the brokerage's estimate. Dispatch volumes fell 1% year on year, but blended average selling price rose 4% quarter on quarter.
Quarter Performance
Jefferies said the quarter showed support from both pricing and product mix. Fuel supply agreement volumes declined 4% from a year earlier, while prices rose 5%. E-auction volumes jumped 28%, partly offset by a 2% fall in e-auction prices.
Cash EBITDA per tonne increased 19% quarter on quarter to Rs 620. Recurring profit after tax rose 11% from a year earlier.
The company also declared a final dividend of Rs 5.25 per share, taking FY26 total payout to Rs 26.5 per share.
Outlook Ahead
Jefferies said Coal India could benefit from a recovery in power demand in the coming months. A hotter summer and weak rainfall linked to El Nino may increase electricity use, especially from agriculture and households.
The brokerage added that firmer global coal prices could also support e-auction pricing.
After a 12% earnings-per-share decline over FY24-FY26, Jefferies expects the company's earnings growth to improve, with a 5% compound annual growth rate over FY26-FY28.
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