India is likely to receive a below-normal southwest monsoon this year, with rainfall distribution emerging as a bigger concern than the aggregate number, according to GP Sharma, president–metrology and climate change at Skymet Weather.
Sharma told NDTV Profit that Skymet had flagged the risk months ago. "We had the preliminary foreshadow given in the month of January also. There were early signs of below normal monsoon, subpar monsoon this year. And that's what we had shared in January itself," he said.
"In the same forecast, we have given that below normal monsoon is likely. By the time the monsoon starts, we will still be in a neutral condition… The monsoon may start on a satisfactory note, maybe right on time also. The month of June… should be okay," he added.
The bigger worry, he cautioned, lies in the second half. "But the fear is halfway through the monsoon, these parameters… are likely to become" adverse, " he said, trailing into a warning in July and August. "Core monsoon months also, July and August, they may not be as we desire them to be."
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States That Might Be Affected
Regionally, Sharma sees a reversal of recent trends. "Last two seasons, the monsoon was good, above normal. But there were pockets which remained deficit… East India, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal," he recalled. "This time… those pockets look to be better, even northeast India and all the eastern states."
The stress, however, could shift westward and central. "The sad aspect will be that the core monsoon region… central parts, western parts of the country, they will face the crunch."
States including Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Punjab, Haryana and the Delhi region are likely to see weaker rainfall, "particularly the second half," Sharma said.
Even a delayed withdrawal may not help. "End of monsoon… is not going to behave as we desire normally. It is going to remain a little inadequate rainfall over most parts of the country, barring east and northeast India."
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