A new tracker projects that the ongoing "Super El Niño" could cause about 3.73 lakh additional heat-related deaths worldwide between October and March.
India is expected to see roughly 55,000 of them, second only to Nigeria.
The projections come from the El Niño Heat Mortality Tracker, launched by the Climate Impact Lab, a research group at the University of Chicago.
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What The Tracker Says
The tool estimates how many more people will die from extreme heat than under average conditions in 1996-2005. It projects around 8.57 lakh excess deaths between June 2026 and March 2027, of which about 4.85 lakh have already occurred.
The remaining 3.73 lakh are forecast for the next six months. The researchers revised their numbers upwards after August and September temperatures ran higher than their earlier forecast.
The tracker will be updated monthly until the El Niño ends.
India's Projected Toll
India is projected to record about 55,200 additional heat deaths between October and March, with most of them in March. Nigeria leads at about 56,000. Indonesia follows with around 29,000 and Brazil with about 19,000.
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Nigeria, India and Brazil together account for over a third of the projected deaths in the period. The deaths are concentrated in the Global South, where cooling infrastructure and health systems are weaker.
A Projection, Not A Count
These are model-based estimates, not recorded deaths. They combine observed temperatures with seasonal forecasts and depend on how the El Niño evolves and how well governments prepare.
Michael Greenstone, a co-founder of the lab and a University of Chicago economist, said the research puts new forecasting tools to work on "where is extreme heat likely to cost lives".
The lab says it wants decision-makers to use the tracker to target early warning systems, healthcare access and cooling support.
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Why This El Niño Matters
El Niño is a periodic warming of surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It disrupts winds, pressure and rainfall patterns worldwide, and typically recurs every two to seven years and lasts nine to 12 months.
By September, the warming in this event had exceeded that in any previous El Niño on record, according to reports. The World Meteorological Organization has called it the strongest since 1950.
It expects the event to keep intensifying until a peak in December, with effects lasting into early 2027.
Experts have also warned of knock-on effects in cities. SAFAR's Gufran Beig told NDTV earlier this week that slower winds could worsen Mumbai's air pollution, since the city would lose some of its natural ventilation.
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