As West Bengal heads into the crucial second phase of Assembly elections on April 29, attention is set to shift to exit polls once voting concludes — often viewed as early indicators of the final verdict, though not always reliable.
The Bharatiya Janata Party has expressed confidence about unseating Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, with Home Minister Amit Shah claiming the party could win over 110 of the 152 seats that went to polls in the first phase and go on to secure a majority.
In contrast, Banerjee has asserted that early voting trends indicate her party, the Trinamool Congress, remains firmly ahead.
A robust voter turnout in the first phase has further added to the uncertainty, raising questions over whether surveys and projections are fully capturing ground realities.
Campaigning for the second phase ended on April 27, marking a key milestone in the ongoing election cycle. Alongside West Bengal, Assembly elections in Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry have already concluded earlier this month. Results for all five states will be declared on May 4.
As per guidelines of the Election Commission of India, media outlets are prohibited from publishing or broadcasting exit poll data until voting across all phases is completed. Once released, these projections—based on voter feedback collected after polling—offer a snapshot of public sentiment ahead of counting day.
How Accurate Were Exit Polls in 2021?
In the 2021 Assembly elections, most exit polls suggested a closely fought contest between the TMC and the BJP. The aggregated “poll of polls” projected around 156 seats for Banerjee's party and about 121 for the BJP, pointing to a tight race.
However, the actual results told a different story. The TMC registered a sweeping victory with 215 seats—far exceeding predictions—while the BJP secured 77 seats, emerging as the principal opposition in the state for the first time.
The wide gap between projections and the final outcome in 2021 continues to cast doubt on the reliability of exit polls, even as the state awaits fresh projections for the 2026 contest.
Exit polls 2026
The 2026 Assembly election in West Bengal is being held in two phases, with the first phase conducted on April 23 and the second scheduled for April 29. The counting of votes and declaration of results will take place on May 4.
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