Monsoon Forecast: Deficit May Worsen As IMD Warns Of 'Below-Normal Rainfall In July'

This deficient rainfall is expected to affect most of central, northern and western India.

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This deficient rainfall is expected to affect most of central, northern and western India.
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The Indian Meteoroligcal Department (IMD) forecast a below-normal monsoon for a majority of the parts of the country as El Nino conditions escalate over the Pacific Ocean, on Tuesday.

The IMD stated that rainfall is projected less than 94% of the long period average, with July set to see below normal rains. July's long-term average rainfall from 1971-2020 was at 280.4 milimetres. 

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This deficient rainfall is expected to affect most of central, northern and western India. Certain sections of northwest India, east-central India and eastern peninsular region have higher chances of receiving normal and above-normal rains.

This development comes after India saw its fifth driest monsoon in June since 1901, according to reports, which stated that 2026 saw the driest June in over a decade. Rainfall in the monsoon season fell 39.8% below the long-term average according to weather department data.

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The deficit in monsoon has lead to the slowing down of the planting of summer crops such as rice, corn, cotton and soybeans.

The northern plains in India are also facing atypically hot temperatures, with maximum temperatures going past 42 degrees centigrade in select areas.

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ALSO READ: Rainfall Deficit At 39.8%: Sluggish Monsoon Makes June 5th Driest In India Since 1901

The average rainfall recorded across the country in June so far stands at 92.2mm, against a normal of 157.7mm. Even with a good spell of rain expected on the month's last day, June is likely to close at around 100mm overall. 

In the past 100 years between 1927 and 2026, only two years have recorded lower June rainfall than this — 2009 (87.5mm) and 2014 (92.1mm), both within the last two decades, reported the Times of India.

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