Kerala is set for a closely fought electoral battle, with the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the opposition United Democratic Front (UDF) running neck and neck, according to the latest pre-election opinion poll.
Polling in Kerala is scheduled in a single phase on April 9, with counting due for May 4, setting the stage for what could be one of the closest electoral contests in the state's recent history.
The Vote Tracker survey by VoteVibe projects the UDF to win 64–74 seats, while the LDF is expected to win 63–73 seats in the 140-member Assembly.
The elections will be held in a single-phase on April 9.
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With 71 seats needed for a majority, the opinion poll shows a narrow lead of just one seat to a contest that could be decided at the very end.
Vote share projections also underline the tight race, with UDF at 39.7% and LDF at 38.7%—a gap well within the margin of error.
With a significant number of undecided voters, even minor shifts could tilt the balance in either direction.
The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the Bharatiya Janata Party, is projected to secure 1–5 seats. This is the third edition of the VoteVibe opinion poll.
In its March 23 survey, the LDF was projected to win 71 seats against UDF's 67. A week later, on March 30, projections shifted slightly in favour of the UDF, with 67–73 seats, while the LDF was seen at 64–70.
Kerala's electoral history adds context to the tight contest. While the state usually votes out the incumbent government after a gap of five years, the 2021 polls marked a departure.
The LDF, led by Pinarayi Vijayan, returned to power with a historic 99 seats—breaking the state's pattern of alternating governments—and secured a vote share of 45.28%.
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On the question of chief ministerial preference, 31.3% of respondents said they want “Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan to remain in the top post,” while Congress leader V. D. Satheesan followed closely at 29.5%.
The survey reflects a mixed perception of the incumbent government. While about 40% of respondents rated its performance as “very good” or “good,” a larger share—around 43%—described it as “poor” or “very poor,” indicating higher dissatisfaction levels.
Price rise has emerged as the top issue for voters at 17%, followed by unemployment (16.2%) and corruption (12.9%).
Concerns over alcoholism and drug abuse (11.2%), along with law and order (9.2%), also feature prominently.
Among younger voters, unemployment stands out, with over 20% in the 18–34 age group flagging it as their primary concern.
On social dynamics, nearly half of the respondents—49.3%—believe “polarisation has increased over recent elections,” while only 17.8% feel it has declined.
The survey also highlights a strategic dilemma for Congress. According to the findings, 36.2% of respondents believe “having multiple chief ministerial faces will hurt the party's prospects,” while 24.5% see it as an advantage and 23.3% say it will make no difference.
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