External trade negotiations between India and the United States are progressing, but the final stages remain challenging, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said at the NDTV World Summit, cautioning that global economic volatility has made trade and diplomatic calculations increasingly unpredictable.
“It's never done till it's done,” Jaishankar said, responding to remarks by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio that a trade agreement was close to completion. He said discussions were moving forward, with negotiating teams working through the remaining issues, but declined to disclose specific sticking points.
Addressing concerns over Washington's shifting tariff positions under President Donald Trump, Jaishankar said India could no longer approach international economic relations with assumptions based on an earlier, more predictable global order.
The minister said countries must account for volatility while making trade and investment decisions, adding that governments would need to hedge risks and diversify their options rather than depend on a single partner or market.
He compared the challenge to portfolio management in a volatile market, arguing that international relations now require countries to spread their exposure across multiple options.
Jaishankar said uncertainty extended beyond tariffs to energy supplies, financial transactions, sanctions and restrictions on equipment and resources. He described the emerging global environment as one increasingly shaped by “choke points”, where countries use economic dependencies as instruments of pressure.
On energy security, Jaishankar defended India's position that decisions on energy supplies should reflect market realities and the interests of consumers.
He argued that restrictions, sanctions and boycotts in an interconnected global economy inevitably create distortions, push up costs and affect consumers across countries.
Referring to Washington's approach to Russian energy supplies, he said the US decision to turn to Russian supply to protect its consumers illustrated the broader difficulties created by disruptions in global energy markets.
Jaishankar also criticised what he described as inconsistencies in Western approaches to energy security, saying some countries had sought to shield their own populations from higher costs while expecting lower-income economies to absorb the impact.
The minister said India's ability to negotiate effectively on the global stage would ultimately depend on its domestic economic strength and technological capabilities.
He cited initiatives such as Make in India, production-linked incentive schemes, semiconductor manufacturing and infrastructure development as efforts to strengthen the country's position in international negotiations.
Jaishankar argued that India's past decades of slower capability-building had left it playing catch-up with China, particularly in manufacturing and industrial development.
He said India still had a considerable distance to cover but stressed that building domestic capabilities would help prevent other countries from using economic dependencies as instruments of coercion.
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