RBI MPC Meeting Live: Repo Rate Unchanged; Governor Says Inflation Risks Linger Amid Gulf Conflict

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra is now addressing a press conference.

Upasna Bhardwaj, Chief Economist, Kotak Mahindra Bank said, "RBI expectedly kept rates and stance unchanged. After the circulars on restricting offshore speculative activity, the recent de-escalation on the geopolitical front has provided some relief to INR providing room for RBI to assess the lasting impact on growth-inflation and the persistence of BOP deficit. We expect RBI to monitor liquidity conditions closely and possibly introduce VRRRs to ensure the overnight rates graduate higher between repo and MSF rate."

"Real estate investments remain the most desired due to their strong base and reliability factor. Homebuyers are currently driven by long-term confidence rather than short-term rate fluctuations. However, we are hopeful of a rate cut in the near future as it would be highly encouraging for homebuyers and developers alike, potentially boosting affordability and investments in the sector. A stable interest-rate environment will play a crucial role in sustaining homebuyer confidence throughout the year. The real estate sector has shown resilience with strong sales, and supportive monetary policy and measured approach will only accelerate its upward trajectory. The unchanged policy stance is set to keep the real estate sector’s growth momentum on track," said Ramani Sastri, chairman and MD, Sterling Developers.

"For commercial real estate, steady interest rates provides much-needed stability in borrowing costs, supports sustained leasing momentum and long-term investment decisions, thereby increasing demand for office space and new developments. With no immediate upward pressure on financing costs, occupiers are more likely to expand through managed and flexible workspaces, reinforcing the sector’s strong demand trajectory. This is particularly important at a time when leasing activity is gaining traction across key markets.  Easier credit availability attracts both individual and institutional investors, driving real estate growth," said Manas Mehrotra, founder of coworking company 315Work Avenue.

"The economy is confronted with a supply shock. It is prudent to wait and watch the changing circumstances and the evolving growth-inflation outlook," RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said.

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra On Inflation 

"Since the last policy meeting, geopolitical uncertainties have heightened significantly. Headline inflation remains contained and below the target, but upside risks to the inflation outlook have increased, driven by increased energy price pressures and probable weather disturbances affecting food prices. Core inflation pressures remain muted, although supply chain dislocations and the risk of second round effects render the future inflation trajectory uncertain."

Economic Activity

"High frequency indicators till February 2026 suggest the continuation of strong momentum in economic activity. Growth impulses continue to be supported by robust private consumption and investment demand. However, the West Asia conflict will adversely impact growth. Higher input costs associated with increase in energy prices and international freight and insurance costs along with supply-chain disruptions could constrain availability of key inputs for downstream sectors, thus impairing growth."

The minutes of the MPC's meeting this week will be published on April 22, 2026.

The next meeting of the MPC is scheduled for June 3 to 5.

The RBI is likely to continue with a data-dependent approach, suggesting an extended pause in rates, said Sujan Hajra, chief economist and executive director at Anand Rathi Group.

"The broader policy stance is also likely to remain neutral, although liquidity conditions may continue to be managed in an accommodative manner. Overall, this policy mix appears neutral to marginally supportive for equities, fixed income and the foreign exchange market."

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra has ended his speech. He will address a press conference at 12:00 p.m.

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The RBI has revised FY26 growth downward to 7.3% vs 7.6% estimated earlier.

"The real GDP growth for last year is estimated at 7.6%. This corroborates the underlying strong momentum in economic activity supported by robust consumption and investment amidst supportive policy measures, ongoing structural reforms and favourable financial conditions. Going forward, elevated energy and other commodity prices as also shocks to the availability of inputs due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, are likely to impact growth this year. The government has been proactive in ensuring the supply of inputs across critical sectors to minimise the impact of supply chain disruptions. On the other hand, sustained momentum in the services sector, the persisting impact of GST rationalisation which was carried out last year and the healthy balance sheets of financial institutions and corporates should continue to support economic activity."

Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the West Asia conflict will impact India's GDP growth this year even as fundamentals remain strong. The MPC opined intensity and duration of conflict and it’s damage to infrastructure is a risk to inflation and growth outlook.

RBI MPC members see upside risks to headline CPI, said Governor Sanjay Malhotra.

As expected, Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra-led Monetary Policy Committee unanimously decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25%. The 'neutral' stance has been retained.

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said India's economy is better prepared than last time to deal with global challenges. "Our fundamentals are strong".

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra is set to deliver his speech, announcing the decision of the Monetary Policy Committee.

Despite a cumulative 125-basis-point reduction in the repo rate since February 2025, economists say the transmission of policy easing remains incomplete.

Recent market developments — including currency pressures, elevated funding costs and tighter financial conditions — have offset some of the intended impact of earlier rate cuts.

Economists expect the RBI to focus on maintaining liquidity and ensuring orderly market conditions rather than adjusting rates in the near term.

The April policy will also mark the central bank's first full set of projections for FY27 after it deferred annual forecasts in February due to the transition to new CPI and GDP series.

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The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond opened 8 basis points lower at 6.96%.

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Economic activity continues to expand, but the pace of growth has eased in recent months, particularly in high-frequency indicators.

Manufacturing activity slowed in March, with the PMI falling to 53.8, its lowest level since September 2021. Services activity also moderated, with the PMI at 57.2, bringing the composite index down to 56.5. Businesses cited geopolitical tensions, volatile markets and rising costs as factors weighing on output.

At the same time, changes to the GDP base year are expected to lift headline growth estimates for FY26 to around 7.6%, compared with earlier projections, according to Bloomberg data, largely reflecting updated methodology rather than a shift in underlying momentum.

Madan Sabnavis of Bank of Baroda said the central bank is likely to stay on hold. “We do not expect any change in repo rate or stance this time. The tone will be cautious and what will be eagerly awaited is RBI's forecast of GDP and inflation under the prevailing uncertainty,” he said.

Inflation remains within the Reserve Bank's tolerance band, but recent data and global developments suggest upward pressure could build in the near term.

Consumer price inflation rose to 3.21% in February from 2.75% in January under the revised CPI series, reflecting increases in food and precious metal prices. While the level remains below the 4% target, cost pressures are beginning to strengthen.

Survey-based indicators point to rising input costs, with March PMI data showing the fastest increase in input prices in 45 months, indicating that pricing pressures are spreading across sectors. Economists expect inflation to move higher from recent lows, even if it stays broadly aligned with the target.

Barclays said the central bank is likely to remain on hold as it monitors these dynamics. “We expect the RBI MPC to keep the policy repo rate on hold and retain the neutral stance… We expect continued liquidity support and timely FX intervention to keep financial conditions stable,” the bank said.

People can livestream all the announcements made by the central bank on the official social media handles of the RBI. 

Apart from this, they can even follow the real-time updates and track key highlights on YouTube and other social media channels of the NDTV Network. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra is expected to hold a press conference on Wednesday, April 8.

Several economic experts and analysts are expecting the RBI MPC to keep rates steady at 5.25% in its April review. 

This time, the major focus remains on the central bank's comments regarding the situation in West Asia, with the US and Israel targeting Iran. The central bank is expected to stay focused on the potential inflationary impacts of the war. 

Notably, the ongoing conflict has significantly disrupted global energy markets, with Brent crude prices remaining more than $100 per barrel. This comes at a time when the Strait of Hormuz faces indefinite closure, impacting India's energy imports.