India's Surveillance Market: China Out, CP Plus In — How Aditya Infotech Has Claimed The CCTV Crown

India's video surveillance industry is going through a key reshaping, with the organised market witnessing a clear growth in demand. And in this tightly contested space, Aditya Infotech appears to have emerged as a clear winner, through its brand CP Plus. 

Having gotten listed in August 2025, shares of Aditya Infotech have given investors return of up to 166%. On a year-to-date basis, the stock is up more than 90%, even at a time when the broader Indian markets have struggled with volatility and rapid FII selling. 

The strong outperformance in Aditya Infotech can be primarily linked to the success of its surveillance brand, CP Plus, which became a title sponsor for Punjab Kings in this year's IPL.

How did CP Plus crack the Indian market?

CP Plus' success can be contributed to the government's STQC (Standards Testing and Quality Certification) mandate. While the STQC mandate has been in existence for a while, it wasn't until April 2025, when the STQC/IoT System Certification mandate officially became the required standard for manufacturing, selling, and integrating internet-connected CCTV and surveillance systems in India.

This greatly benefited a company like CP Plus, as the mandate effectively squeezed out Chinese manufacturers that once dominated the market. 

The policy shift, which was aimed to bolster domestic manufacturing and addressing data security concerns, triggered a rapid consolidation within the industry, with Aditya Infotech's CP Plus emerging as the clear winner.

At the time of its IPO, the company held approximately 30% of India's video surveillance market, with about 25% under the CP Plus brand. 

Management had projected that share could expand to 36% "post-STQC implementation, assuming a meaningful consolidation of the Chinese players' market share among the Indian manufacturers," Managing Director Aditya Khemka said on the company's Q4 FY26 earnings call.

The actual outcome, though, far exceeded that estimate.

"The industry transition unfolded more favorably than anticipated," Khemka said. "As of Q4FY26, our market share reached approximately 45.4%, establishing us as the clear market leader in India's organized surveillance industry."

The level of consolidation in the organised CCTV market is quite stark. While about 30 brands are now STQC-certified, a dozen global and roughly 18 domestic, no single rival competes across all the segments from home consumers to enterprise to government. 

"Most of them are probably one-tenth of our size at the moment or even lower," Khemka said. "If you ask me a single large number two, I can't take one single large number two across the sectors."

The CP Plus brand now contributes 86% of AI surveillance revenue, with IP products making up 73% of that portfolio.

A stellar fourth quarter and a guidance revision

In the wake of the improved market share, Aditya Infotech delivered a stellar fourth quarter earnings, where profit jumped as much as 207% while revenue saw a 45% uptick. Shares hit an upper circuit of 10% on Friday.

The revenue jump can be attributed to an increase in average selling price, which in turn, was caused by higher component costs. Prices are expected to go higher going forward and will be passed on in a tapered fashion.

Aditya Infotech's FY27 average selling price could rise by 25%, with the company having already revised their expectations. FY27 full year revenue is pegged at Rs 6,500 crore vs earlier guidance of Rs 6,000 crore. PAT, meanwhile, is guided at Rs 552.5 to Rs 617.5 crore.

The road ahead for Aditya Infotech

However, not everything is rosy about Aditya Infotech. 

Competitors face an additional hurdle beyond scale: a global semiconductor shortage, driven by AI data centre demand redirecting chip manufacturing capacity away from the components CCTV makers rely on. But these same problems are also squeezing Aditya Infotech's own supply chain and cost structure. 

According to ICICI Securities, the company implemented 6-8% price hikes in January 2026, with the brokerage firm expecting further hikes in the coming quarters in light of the persistent inflation in semiconductor and memory chips.

ICICI Securities further highlighted that the company is managing supply chain disruption through diversified sourcing and monthly price increases. The root of the problem, though, is structural.

Half the global non-Chinese DDR manufacturers have stopped making DDR3, which is widely used for CCTVs as it doesn't require complex tasks. However, because of the ongoing AI wave, the demand for a more complex and capable of DDR5 has taken over, leading to a supply glut in DDR3 RAMs.

"This is a very unprecedented time; I have not seen these kind of things in the last two, three decades of my business career," Khemka said.

The company cannot enjoy the low-cost inventory forever and replacement inventory is likely to be procured at a much higher cost, with management itself acknowledging that profitability growth may not keep pace with revenue growth in near term.

Moreover, the management had originally expected over 20% unit growth this year on the back of pent-up demand from the STQC transition. That estimate has since been moderated to 15-16%, factoring in the impact of rising prices on entry-level buyers. Khemka acknowledged that some consumers may shift back to cheaper analog cameras where the price impact is less severe.

"The supply chain itself this year is a big deterrent for anybody to compete really," Khemka said. "They were unable to feed their own demand at the moment."

This cuts both ways. While it reinforces CP Plus's dominance today, it also signals that the current market share of 45.4% may partly reflect a temporary vacuum rather than a permanent structural advantage. .

Management, for its part, said it is not targeting a specific market share number. "We are focused more on building our capacities and ensuring supply," said Anup Nair, President of Strategy and Business Development. "Market share gain will happen naturally."

For now, though, the numbers remain firmly in Aditya Infotech's favour. The company has guided FY27 EBITDA margins of 14-15% - a meaningful upgrade from the 12-13% guided just one quarter ago, and what Khemka called the "new normal" for the business.

Meanwhile, capex of Rs 200-300 crore is planned for FY27, funded largely from internal accruals, as the company works to double production capacity by calendar year 2028.

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