KEY HIGHLIGHTS
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Government Expects Rs 48,661 Crore From Telecom Sector In FY19
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Budget 2018 Reaction: See STT Being Removed At Some Point, Rangarajan Says
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India Proposes To Spend Rs 2.8 Lakh Crore In Defense On FY19
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BUDGET 2018: LONG-TERM CAPITAL GAINS TAX MAKES A COMEBACK
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FY18 FISCAL DEFICIT TARGET AT 3.5%, FY19 PEGGED AT 3.3% OF GDP
Budget 2018: FM's Press Briefing
Key Highlights
- Widened Scope Of Cess To Fund Other Transportation Development
- GST Shortfall Is About Rs 50,000 Crore For FY18
- Confident Of FY19 Fiscal Deficit Target With Full-Yr GST Revenues
- Large Part Of LTCG Income Is Of Corporates, Indian & Foreign
- Many Exemptions Remain, Hence Rs 250 Cr Cap In Corp Tax Rate Cut
- Small Gap Arising From 1 Month Less Revenue In Indirect Taxes
- Budget Blends Fiscal Prudence With Needs Of The Economy
- See No Inflation Impact From MSP Move, Higher Cess
- Don't See Any Serious Impact On CPI From FY19 Budget
FM Says To Study Tax Collections From LTCG Before Addressing STT
It’s a “legitimate question” on overlap of securities transaction tax and long-term capital gains tax on equities, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley says in an interview to state-run broadcaster DD News.
The imposition of LTCG tax would be a double whammy for investors who pay STT on every transaction. Jaitley said the government needs to see how much is collected from the LTCG tax before addressing the STT issue.
The government has made a proposal to impose tax on long term capital gains of more than Rs 100,000 at 10 percent without allowing benefit of any indexation, according to statement released by finance ministry.
All gains up to January 31 will be grandfathered, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley says during presentation of federal budget for FY19. Jaitley also proposed to introduce a tax on distributed income by equity oriented mutual fund at the rate of 10 percent to provide level playing field across growth-oriented funds and dividend distributing funds.
The change in capital gain tax will bring marginal revenue gain of about Rs 20,000 crore in the first year and revenues in subsequent years may be more, Jaitley said. The government estimates total amount of exempted capital gains from listed shares and units at about Rs 3.67 lakh crore as per returns filed for tax assessment year 2017-18.
Budget 2018: AskBQ
Budget Impact: Sensex, Nifty End Lower After Volatile Session; M&M, L&T Top Gainers
Indian stocks had a tumultuous day, swinging between gains and losses, as investors digest the government’s end to a tax break on equity investments to tap the market for a revenue boost alongside the nation’s budget speech.
The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.16 percent or 58 points to 35,906 and the NSE Nifty 50 Index declined 0.1 percent or 11 points to 11,017. The India VIX Index -- a volatility measure -- slipped up to 13 percent, while the rupee weakened against the dollar.
Twelve out of 19 sector gauges compiled by BSE ended lower dragged down by the S&P BSE Consumer Durables Index's 1.78 percent drop. On the flipside, the S&P BSE Capital Goods Index was the top sectoral gainer, up 1.57 percent.
Airline stocks rose as the government proposed an expansion of airport capacity. Shares of healthcare and insurance companies surged after a proposal to provide national healthcare insurance covering 10 crore people.
Dalal Street Reacts To Budget 2018
Suresh Prabhu On Budget 2018
Budget 2018: The Fineprint
Govt May Consider Bond ETF Of CPSEs, With AAA-Rated Firms: DIPAM Secretary
Department of Investment and Public Asset Management (DIPAM) Secretary Talks To BloombergQuint
Key takeaways from the interview
- Revised FY18 Disinvestment Target To Rs 1 Lakh Crore
- FY19 Disinvestment Via Stake Sale, M&A, Strategic Sale, ETF Route
- Merger Of Insurance Cos One Among Other Possible Mergers
- ONGC-HPCL Deal Done To Mirror Global Oil Majors, Not For Windfall
ITC’s Gets A Rs 17,000 Crore Market Cap Boost
Shares of the country's largest cigarette maker rose as much as 7 percent, the most in over six months, to Rs 290.30 after the government left the cess on cigarettes unchanged.
Surge in ITC shares boosted its market value by Rs 16,942 crore to Rs 3.47 lakh crore.
Other cigarette makers
- Godfrey Philips rose as much as 6.75 percent
- VST Industries rose as much as 4 percent
Budget 2018: Key Takeaways
PM Modi Says Budget 2018 Will Accelerate India's Growth
Prime Minster Narendra Modi said the budget not only improves ease of doing business, but also ease of living.
He said his government has worked to boost income of farmers, lift savings for middle-incomed Indians and also aid wealth of small companies. The measures will bring new forms of employment in rural regions, Modi said. “This budget will help accelerate India’s growth and strengthen the vision of the new India in the days to come,” he said.
UDAN To Connect 56 Unserved Airports, Jaitley Says
As many as 56 unserved airports and 31 unserved helipads will be connected under the government's regional air connectivity scheme, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said.
He also said that the government has proposed expansion of airport capacity by more than five times to handle a billion trips a year under a new initiative. "In the last three years, the domestic air passenger traffic grew at 18 per cent per annum and our airline companies placed orders for more than 900 aircraft," he said.
The regional air connectivity scheme or UDAN (Ude Desh ka Aam Nagrik) launched last year seeks to connect unserved and under-served airports as well as make flying more affordable for the masses.
The finance minister said that UDAN "shall connect 56 unserved airports and 31 unserved helipads across the country", adding that operations have already started at 16 such airports.
With regard to expanding airport capacity, Jaitley said balance sheet of AAI would be leveraged to raise more resources for funding the expansion plans. State-owned Airport Authority of India (AAI) manages 124 airports.
“Infrastructure is the growth driver of the economy. Our country needs massive investments, estimated to be in excess of Rs 50 lakh crore, in infrastructure to increase growth of GDP, connect and integrate the nation with a network of roads, airports, railways, ports and inland waterways and to provide good quality services to our people,” Jaitley said.
PTI
Decoding Budget 2018
India Budget 2018: Winners and Losers
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has delivered the election-year budget many expected.
With national polls looming next year -- and possibly as early as late 2018 -- Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has rolled out a budget designed to help distressed farmers and rural areas while boosting growth, jobs and private investment.
In this budget, India’s farmers and villagers, as well as companies with exposure to agriculture, emerge as the biggest winners. Bond investors might just be the biggest losers.
Government Expects Rs 48,661 Crore From Telecom Sector In FY19
The government expects around 58 percent increase in revenue at Rs 48,661.42 crore from the stressed telecom sector in 2018-19 against the revised revenue estimate of Rs 30,736.47 crore for the current fiscal, according to the budget documents.
The government earns revenue in the form of mainly licence fees and spectrum usage charges from telecom operators. It had made a provision of Rs 44,342.2 crore revenue from telecom services in 2017-18.
Spectrum sales through auction has been main contributor to the government revenue. However, no auction was conducted in the current fiscal and the debt ridden telecom players have said that they need some more time to absorb investments made in last auctions.
The Department of Telecom has sought views of the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India on price of spectrum for mobile services and timings for the auction.
The spectrum auction in 2018-19 will depend on the recommendations of TRAI.
PTI
Budget 2018 Reaction: See STT Being Removed At Some Point, Rangarajan Says
Former RBI Governor C Rangarajan said the FY19 fiscal deficit target of 3.3 percent seems “reasonable”.
While that may be the case, Rangarajan said he does not see how the NK Singh Commission aim of 2.5 percent fiscal deficit can be met.
According to the NK Singh committee, eventually, in order to reach the debt-GDP ratio, the fiscal deficit will have to come down to 2.5 percent of the GDP. I do not know how that would be accomplished. Therefore, I would think that we should still stick with the old FRBM math and try to see that at least the government is able to maintain a fiscal deficit of 3 percent of GDP.C Rangarajan Said.
The panel that reviewed India’s fiscal discipline rules had recommended a fiscal deficit of 2.5 percent of GDP (gross domestic product) by financial year 2022-23.
Meanwhile, Rangarajan said he expects the Securities Transaction Tax to be removed at some point and an introduction of a full-fledged LTCG.
Theoretically there is a case for a long-term capital gains and perhaps he [Jaitley] wants to push in that direction and later on at one stage the STT can be removed and a full-fledged long-term capital gains tax can be introduced.C Rangarajan Said.
India Proposes To Spend Rs 2.8 Lakh Crore In Defense On FY19
India proposes to spend Rs 63,836 crore in agriculture sector in FY19, Rs 85,010 crore in education, according to a budget document tabled in the parliament by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley.
- Government sees dividend of Rs 54,800 crore from the central bank and other financial institutions in FY19.
- Sees drawdown of cash balance at Rs 43,100 crore in FY19
- India sees gross tax revenue at Rs 22.7 lakh crore in FY19
- Sees revenue from Goods and Services Tax at Rs 7.4 lakh crore in FY19; subsidies seen at Rs 2.95 lakh crore in the same fiscal year
- Proposes petroleum subsidy of Rs 24,933 crore in FY19, food subsidy of Rs 1.69 lakh crore
Sensex, Nifty Recover After Initial Knee-Jerk Reaction To Tax Proposal
India’s benchmark equity indices recovered after an initial knee-jerk reaction to the news of government's proposed long-term capital gains tax on equities.
The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.2 percent or 81 points to 36,014 after dropping as much as 1.3 percent. Likewise, the NSE Nifty 50 Index gained 0.18 percent to 11,047 after falling as much as 1.3 percent after the announcement was made.
BUDGET 2018: LONG-TERM CAPITAL GAINS TAX MAKES A COMEBACK
The big fear of the market has come true. Jaitley has brought back the capital gains tax effective immediately. The measures taken by the current government have made the equity markets buoyant, he said.
The finance minister has proposed a 10 percent long-term tax on equity gains above Rs 1 lakh.
FM Proposes:
- To Propose 10 Percent LTCG On Equity Gains Above Rs 1 Lakh
- LTCG On Shares Purchased On Or Before Jan 31 To Be Grandfathered
- STCG Tax On Gains Made Under 1 Year To Remain At 15 Percent
- LTCG To Be Effective Immediately
Block Deal Alert
- ITC has 30 lakh shares change hands in a block deal.
Buyers and sellers were not immediately known
Source: Bloomberg
Government Sets FY19 Gross Borrowing Target At Rs 6.06 Lakh Crore
FY18 FISCAL DEFICIT TARGET AT 3.5%, FY19 PEGGED AT 3.3% OF GDP
NO CHANGE IN STRUCTURE OF INCOME TAX FOR INDIVIDUALS
Government's Tax Proposals
- Standard Deduction Of Rs 40,000 For Salaried People For Transport, Health
- To Allow 100 Percent Deduction To Some Farmer Producer Companie
- To Extend Reduced Corp Tax Of 25 Percent To Companies With Rs 250 Crore Turnover
- No Change In Structure Of Income Tax For Individuals
- Senior Citizen Deduction For Health Insurance Raised To Rs 50,000
Other Tax Proposals:
- Customs Duty On Mobile Phones Raised To 20 Percent From 15 Percent
- Custom Duty On Raw Cashew Reduced To 2.5 Percent From 5 Percent
- Custom Duty On Some Mobile And TV Parts Increased To 15 Percent
Watch Budget 2018
FM Jaitley Lauds India's Growing Tax Base
- Achieved 18.6 Percent Direct Tax Growth As Of Jan. 15 FY18
- India Has 8.27 Crore Income Tax Payers As Of FY17
- 41 Percent More Tax Returns Were Filed This Year
- To Allow 100 Percent Deduction To Some Farmer Producer Companies
- Revenue Forgone Due To Corporate Tax Widening At Rs 7,000 Crore
Key Number: FY19 Divestment Target Rs 80,000 Crore
Government Is Said To Propose LTCG Tax On Equities
In what could be a big setback for the markets, the government is said to propose long-term capital gains tax on equities, according to a Bloomberg report quoting sources.
FY19 Total Infra Spend Plan Rs 5.97 Lakh Crore: FM
Also Read: Jaitley Gives Infrastructure A Push
Government Does Not Consider Cryptocurrencies As Legal Tender: FM
There is no love for cryptocurrencies among India policymakers whatsoever and the finance minister makes it clear. He said the government does not consider any cryptocurrencies as legal tender. In fact, he said it is considering all measures to eliminate use of such virtual currencies.
Some Other Notable Announcements:
- Pay To President Of India Revised To Rs 5 Lakh Per Month
- Pay To Vice President Of India Revised To Rs 4 Lakh Per Month
- Pay To Governors Revised To Rs 3.5 Lakh Per Month
To Allocate Rs 3,073 Crore Under Digital India Programme: FM
FM says:
- To Set Up National Programme Under NITI Aayog On Artificial Intelligence
- Department Of Science And Tech To Launch Mission On Cyber Space
- 1 Lakh Gram Panchayats Have Been Connected Under BharatNet
FY19 Railway Capex Set At Rs 1.48 Lakh Crore: FM
The finance minister has pegged FY19 railway capex at Rs 1.48 lakh crore. The government has kept an aim to electrify 4,000 Kms of railway lines in FY19.
Good news for Mumbaikars. The government will spend around Rs 40,000 crore on upgrading the city’s train systems.
Key Railway Budget highlights
- Plan 160 Km Suburban Rail Line In Bengaluru At Rs 17,000 Crore
- Rail Stations With More Than 25,000 Footfalls To Have Escalators
Fast Tracked Infra Projects Worth Rs 9.46 Lakh Crore, FM Says
The finance minister said the government has fast tracked infrastructure projects worth rs 9.46 lakh crore. He also announced plans to set up smart city projects worth Rs 20,852 crore are in progress.
We have planned 99 smart cities with outlay of Rs 2.04 lakh crore.”Finance Minister Said
The government is seeking to construct a tunnel in the Sella pass. It will also look to complete 9,000 km of national highways in FY18. Moreover, the NHAI will organise road assets into an special purpose vehicle, Jaitley said.
Indian Stocks Keep It Steady: Market Check
Indian equity benchmarks held on to gains led by capital goods and FMCG shares as government focuses on rural and infra push in Budget.
The S&P BSE Sensex is up 0.35 percent or 127 points to 36,092 and the NSE Nifty 50 Index has gained 0.34 percent to 11,068.
Mudra Lending Set At Rs 3 Lakh Crore In FY19: FM
Other key highlights from Budget 2018 so far
- Government To Work Towards Resolving NPAs Of MSMEs
- To Take Additional Measures To Aid VC/Angel Investors In Startups
- To Contribute 12 Percent Of Wages Of New EPF Employees For 3 Years
- FY19 Outlay For Textile Sector Set At Rs 7,100 Crore
- FY19 Allocation For Scheduled Caste Allocation At Rs 56,619 Crore
- FY19 Allocation For Scheduled Tribes At Rs 39,135 Crore
FY18 Fiscal Deficit Target Likely At 3.5% Of GDP: Sources
Govt To Launch National Health Protection Scheme For 10 Crore Families
The big healthcare push. The finance minister announced setting up a National Health Protection Scheme for 10 crore families. The scheme will give Rs 5 lakh per family per year.
We will also allocate Rs 600 crore to provide nutritional support for tuberculosis patientsFinance Minister.
Budget Impact
Shares of hospital operators rose after government proposed National Health Protection Scheme.
- Apollo Hospital Enterprise up 3.13 percent
- Shalby up 2.35 percent
- Healthcare Global up 2.8 percent
- Kovai Medical Centre and Hospital up 1.28 percent
To Invest Rs 1 Lakh Crore On Education Infra Over 4 Years: FM
The government also laid its emphasis on improving the quality of education in the country. From training teachers to increasing the digital foundation in education, a whole host of announcements were made by FM Arun Jaitley.
Here are some of the key announcements:
- To Initiate Integrated B-Ed Programme For Aspiring Teachers
- Digital Intensity In Education To Be Increased
- Amended RTE Act To Train 13 Lakh Teachers
- Govt Committed To Ensure Education To Tribal Children
- To Invest Rs 1 Lakh Crore On Education Infra Over 4 Years
Aim To Provide Houses To Every Poor Person By 2022: FM
The finance minister has proposed to set up a dedicated affordable housing fund.
FM’s Affordable Housing Push
- Raises Spending On Housing For Poor
- FY19 Total Rural Livelihood Spend Plan At Rs 14.34 Lakh Crore
- FY19 Allocation For National Livelihood Mission At Rs 5,750 Crore
- FY19 Groundwater Irrigation Scheme Allocation Rs 2,600 Crore
- Aim To Provide Houses To Every Poor Person By 2022
The FM also proposed to raise the free cooking gas target to eight crore poor households. He also has proposed to increase spending on rural sanitation.
Total Credit To Agriculture Set At Rs 11 Lakh Crore For FY19: FM
Some key announcements so far:
- Fishery Fund, Animal Husbandry Infra Fund Corpus Rs 10,000 Crore
- To Double Allocation To Food Processing Industry
- FY19 Food Processing Ministry Allocation Rs 1,400 crore
- Cluster Based Development Planned for Horticulture
- To Allocate Rs 500 crore For “Operation Green”
- Export Of Agri Commodities Will Be Liberalised
- Propose To Extend Facility Of Kisaan Credit Cards To Fisheries
Jaitley Says MSP For Kharif Crops To Be 1.5x Production Cost
FM Jaitley at the start of his speech emphasised on this year's budget being rural centric. The government committed to welfare of farmers, said Jaitley. He said the government will focus on farm and non-form employment generation.
We had sought to effect a paradigm shift in farm sector.Finance Minister Arun Jaitley.
He said the agriculture policy had remained production-centric for decades, emphasizing the need for generating higher income for farmers. "Our emphasis is on generating higher income for farmers. India's agricultural output is at record levels due to the effort of our farmers," he said.
The FM also said that the government wants to ensure that the farmer receives at least 50 percent or 1.5 times the price of his input costs while selling his produce. “We have increased MSP of kharif crops to 1.5 times the input cost," he told the house.
Government's Agri Push:
Keeping in line with the rural theme, the government has proposed setting up an agricultural market fund of Rs 2,000 crore.
- To develop agri-market infra fund with corpus of Rs 2,000 crore
- 470 APMCs have been connected to E-NAM network
India Poised To Become World’s Fifth Largest Economy: FM
The finance minister emphasised on the premium on honesty given by this government. "There was a time when corruption was the norm. But today's youth wants to lead a life on honesty. There is a premium on honesty," he said.
The FM also added that India’s is poised to become the fifth largest economy ‘very soon.’
FM On India's Economic Performance:
- Exports expected to grow at 15 percent in 2017-18.
- Hope to grow at 7.2-7.5 percent during the second half of the year.
- Firmly on course to achieve high growth of 8 percent plus.
- Indian now a $2.5 trillion economy.
- The country’s lenders are in in better place to support growth.
We will move forward from ease of doing business to improving ease of living for the poor and the middle class.”Finance Minister Arun Jaitley.
Finance Minister Begins His Budget 2018 Speech
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley started his budget speech saying the government had promised to reduce poverty, expedite infrastructure creation. He said the government had pledged to give India honest, clean government and to build strong, confident, new India.
We have decisively reversed perception of India as part of the ‘Fragile Five’.Finance Minister Arun Jaitley.
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley To Begin Budget Speech Shortly
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley will present his fifth and final Union Budget of his term shortly. Just a while back, a cabinet meeting to discuss the budget ended.
Both the Sensex and the Nifty have maintained early gains led by shares of engineering, finance and select software companies while metals and drugmakers decline.
Timing Not Right To Implement LTCG: Sudip Bandhopadhya
There is economic logic in implementing the Long-Term Capital Gains Tax but the timing is not right, Group Chairman of Inditrade Capital Sudip Bandhopadhya told BloombergQuint.
He also said that the rural focussed theme is the one to watch out for this budget and that Jain Irrigation is one of the favoured bets for long-term investors.
Geoff Lewis To BloombergQuint
- Government should not give too much emphasis on fiscal austerity.
- It should focus on efficiency and its time to focus on direct taxes after GST.
January Auto Sales: Maruti Sales Grow 4.8% (YoY)
Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. sold 1,51,351 units in the month of January. The sales included 1,40,600 units sold in the domestic market while 10,751 units were exported.
While domestic sales grew 5 percent, exports saw a 2.8 percent growth compared to the corresponding period last year.
The F&O Show
JUST IN: January Manufacturing PMI Contracts To 52.4 Versus 54.7 In December
The Nikkei India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, or PMI, fell to 52.4 in January, reflecting a slower growth after the index reached a 5-year high at 54.7 in December 2017.
A reading above 50 indicates economic expansion, while a reading below 50 points toward contraction.
"Following December's stellar performance, growth in the Indian manufacturing economy lost some impetus, reflected by slower growth in output, new orders and employment. Nevertheless, these key PMI indicators registered in expansion territory signaling the sector stayed on its track to recovery," said Aashna Dodhia, economist at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey.
"New export orders increased at the strongest pace since September 2016. On the other hand, the Goods and Services Tax (GST) somewhat continues to remain a risk to business performance as firms faced further delayed payments," Dodhia said.
(Nikkei)
Dairy Stocks Surge Ahead Of Budget Speech
BQ Editorial Huddle On What To Expect In Budget 2018
Kajaria Ceramics Falls For 16th Straight Session
Shares of the Delhi-based ceramic tiles maker extended decline to sixteenth day after its net profit declined in October-December quarter missing analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
The stock fell as much as 2.6 percent to Rs 615.
Key Earnings Highlights:
- Net profit came in at Rs 54.31 crore versus Bloomberg estimate of Rs 65.6 crore.
- Revenue came in at Rs 661 crore versus Bloomberg estimate of Rs 684 crore.
The stock fell as much as 7.32 percent, which was its biggest fall since November 15, 2016 yesterday.
Sensex, Nifty Extend Gains; Engineering Stocks Climb
India’s benchmark equity indices rose, helped by engineering and construction companies as investors await the presentation in less than an hour of the government’s last federal budget before a national poll next year.
“This is a pre-budget rally and markets will decide direction once the finance minister has spoken,” said AK Prabhakar, head of research at IDBI Capital Market Services Ltd. told Bloomberg News.
“We expect the government to focus on rural income, agriculture and infrastructure sectors in the budget.”A K Prabhakar, Head of Research, IDBI Capital Market Services
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley Arrives In Parliament With Budget Papers
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley reaches parliament with the budget documents after meeting President Ram Nath Kovind at the Rashtrapati Bhavan.
Budget 2018: Modi Govt Will Look To Score Political Points, Shashi Tharoor Says
Meanwhile, former Finance Minister P Chidambaram hopes for some “corrective action”.
Government's Rural Spending Focus Holds The Key
Vakrangee Slumps 20% For Fourth Straight Session
Shares of the Mumbai-based application software maker slumped 20 percent for second straight day after a report suggested that market regulator SEBI is investigating the company for alleged share price rigging.
The stock has fallen for the fourth straight session, down 42 percent during the period.
The regulator is investigating surge in share price and trading volume which was result of alleged manipulation by certain entities and companies related to the group, according to a Mumbai Mirror newspaper report on Jan. 28.
Earnings Reaction: L&T At Record High, ICICI Bank Muted, Vedanta Down 1%
Shares of Larsen & Toubro hit a record high after it reported a strong third quarter earnings. The management also maintained its guidance for the quarters ahead. Shares were trading 3.1 percent higher at Rs 1,463 on the National Stock Exchange.
On the other hand, ICICI Bank had a muted reaction to its third quarter earnings. While asset quality remained stable, profitability was impacted owing to high provisioning.
Vedanta also had a negative reaction after its third quarter earnings missed estimates.
Sensex, Nifty Open Higher As Investors Await Budget
Indian equity benchmarks climb along with most of Asian peers after the Federal Reserve left key policy rates unchanged and as investors await the budget speech due in less than two hours.
The S&P BSE Sensex rose 160 points to 36,125 and the NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced 47 points to 11,075.
The broader markets were trading mixed as the S&P BSE MidCap Index fell 0.15 percent while the S&P BSE SmallCap Index gained 0.4 percent. All sector gauges were trading higher led by the S&P BSE Capital Goods Index's 1.5 percent jump.
Market Expert Basant Maheshwari To BloombergQuint
- People are chasing price and not performance.
- Nothing wrong with the market, expect it to perform well.
- Overall, the economy should do well aided by a favourable base effect.
- Earnings will appear good optically hereon.
IndianOpen
FM Arun Jaitley Leaves For Parliament With Customary Budget Suitcase
Jaitley Arriving At North Block
Rupee Opens Lower Ahead Of Budget
The Indian rupee declined marginally to 63.68 per dollar against yesterday's close of 63.59. Meanwhile, both the Sensex and the Nifty climb higher in pre-open trade.
Automakers May See Robust Sales In January
In other key events to watch for today, Indian automobile makers may clock strong sales in January on improved demand and consumer sentiment.
That’s the view of most brokerages ahead of release of auto sales numbers. The two-wheeler and commercial vehicle makers are expected to post double-digit volume growth also aided by a low base effect due to demonetisation.
Confident Of Infrastructure Getting Priority In Budget 2018: Gadkari
Road Transport and Highways minister Nitin Gadkari is confident that infrastructure will get top priority in the Union Budget. (Catch the exclusive interview here)
Besides that, Gadkari said that the government was waiting for NHAI to use its surplus funds before embarking on the bond issue. Gadkari also said there are plans to monetise 105 NHAI projects which will yield Rs 1.25 lakh crore.
Nifty & Nifty Bank On Previous Budgets
Will Budget 2018 Mark The Return Of Private Investment?
The Union Budget will have to do its best to boost demand and, in turn, give a leg up to flagging private sector investment. That was the broad view among three of India’s top chief financial officers, who between them represent the automobile, technology, real estate, steel, cement, power and infrastructure sectors.
“2018 is going to be a make or break year. We have already seen some pushback from a political point of view, in terms of the commercial community reacting the way they have reacted in recent state elections. There is some unforgiving sentiment that’s creeping in. Much of this has got to do with expectation mismanagement,” said R Shankar Raman, CFO, L&T.
Watch the entire discussion here
FirstWord
Money Market Heads-Up
Bonds have endured a brutal sell in January, the worst monthly performance in nearly two decades, amid worries that the government may announce a wider-than-expected deficit in the budget slower growth hurt revenues.
The government is likely to borrow a record Rs 6.50 lakh crore in the fiscal year starting April 1, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. The yield on the benchmark 10-year bonds has risen 11 bps in January to 7.43 percent and was little changed Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the rupee is seen opening slightly weaker with the dollar getting a boost from the Federal Reserve's latest policy meet. Janet Yellen ended her term on a hawkish note, building the case for further irate increases at her final policy meeting before handing over to Jerome Powell. The rupee is expected to open at 63.67 down from around 63.59 on Wednesday.
What Dalal Street Wants From Budget 2018
There are the two key things that the markets will watch out for. One, whether Jaitley sticks to the fiscal deficit targets, and if the long-term capital gains tax is reintroduced.
Most experts feel the budget would be a consumption-oriented budget, not capex-oriented. Both from the political and economic perspective, the way to boost the economy is to increase consumption.
To sum it all: market wants the government to maintain the fiscal stance, its policy on taxation and thrust on infrastructure, become ambitious about divestment and give incentives to rural India. D-street will love it.
Watch the entire discussion with Ambit’s Saurabh Mukherjea and Hiren Ved of Alchemy Capital Management on their budget expectations here.
If Long-Term Capital Gains Tax On Listed Equity Were To Return...
The taxman may end up being a speed bump for the Indian stock market, which like its counterparts across the world has marched to multiple records in the past year.
For almost 13 years now, the issue of reinstating the long-term capital gains tax on listed equity shares pops up with unerring accuracy weeks before the Union Budget presentation. This year is no exception.
This time the rumour returned on the strength of a reported proposal by BSE Ltd. that the tax be reintroduced. Capital market and tax experts are divided on whether the tax ought to make a comeback.
Brokerages including Kotak Securities say PM Modi’s administration may make it harder for investors to claim exemptions on capital gains from equity investments.
Read the full report here
Will The Government Pause On Fiscal Consolidation? Brokerages Weigh In
Brokerage houses remain divided on whether the government will breach its fiscal deficit target for 2017-18 or stick to the path of fiscal consolidation in the upcoming Union Budget.
At least two brokerages, in reports released after the Economic Survey, said the government will most likely stick to its deficit target this year but may “take some leeway” from the path of fiscal consolidation next year.
India’s economy is set for a recovery in the current fiscal, as the teething issues from the Goods and Services Tax resolve, but policy makers should stay vigilant on managing macroeconomic stability risks in order to foster the growth, brokerages said.
More details here
DayBreak
Nifty Futures Suggest Stock Gains As Investors Await Budget
The Singapore-traded SGX Nifty, an early indicator of NSE Nifty 50 Index’s performance in India rose 0.26 percent to 11,088.
Asian equities kicked off February by recovering from a three-day end-of-January selloff amid renewed optimism in economic growth and the expansion of corporate earnings. Treasuries edged lower and the dollar steadied.
Overnight, the Federal Reserve officials, meeting for the last time under Chair Janet Yellen, left borrowing costs unchanged while adding emphasis to their plan for more hikes, setting the stage for an increase in March under her successor Jerome Powell.
Key Numbers To Watch For In Budget 2018 Speech
Budget Deficit
- Target is 3.2 percent of GDP in FY18; 3 percent in FY19
- Median estimate in Bloomberg survey is 3.5 percent in FY18 and 3.2 percent in FY19
Revenue
- Target is Rs 21 lakh crore in FY18
- Monthly GST collections have declined to Rs 86,700 crore in December versus Rs 94,000 crore in July, when it was introduced
Spending
- Possible boost in capital expenditure from Rs 3.1 lakh crore in FY18
- More on rural sector, such as jobs programme, road, irrigation projects
Taxes
- Possible removal of tax break on capital gains from stock investments
- Lowering corporate tax rate from 30 percent unlikely
Borrowing
- Gross borrowing may rise to Rs 6.5 lakh crore in FY19 versus Rs 6.05 lakh expected in current year
How Foreign Investors Reacted On Previous Budget Days
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Budget Dilemma
After scoring a rare sovereign upgrade late last year, Modi will want to keep global investors and credit-rating companies on his side. Key to that will be sticking his goal to narrow one of Asia’s largest budget deficits.
HSBC expects India to miss its fiscal deficit target of 3.2 percent of gross domestic product for the year to March 2018, with the shortfall probably coming in at 3.4 percent amid slower growth, the chaotic implementation of the consumption tax that hit revenues, and a lower dividend from the central bank.
ICRA Ltd., the local arm of Moody Investors Service, estimates that a 10 basis-point expansion in the fiscal deficit-to-GDP ratio allows for extra spending of Rs 18,500 core ($2.9 billion).
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley To Present His Fifth (And His Last) Union Budget Today
Hello and welcome to BloombergQuint's coverage of the Union Budget 2018.
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley will step into the Lok Sabha today to present his fifth and final budget of his current term before the general elections in 2019.
Jaitley has a tough balancing act in the budget: maintaining fiscal prudence or handing out cash to placate rural voters ahead of next year’s election.
This budget has been in the news for a variety of reasons. The first after the implementation of the historic Goods and Services Tax (GST), the budget speech will not have an indirect tax component.
The focus will also remain on the government's fiscal trajectory. The Economic Survey suggesting a need for pause in fiscal consolidation and a fear of a higher-than-anticipated fiscal deficit target had worsened the sell-off in bond markets.
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