UltraTech Cement Q4 Results Review - Profitability To Improve; Expansion To Support Growth: Dolat Capital

Dolat Capital Report

UltraTech Cement Ltd.’s revenue/volume/realization came in-line, however Ebitda, Ebitda/tonne, adjusted profit after tax were above our estimates.

Revenue grew +9.4% YoY to Rs 204.2 billion (+22.0% QoQ) led by volume growth of 10.8% YoY at 35.1 million tonne (+28.4% QoQ), partially offset by -1.3% YoY in in realisation/tonne to Rs 5,821 (-5% QoQ).

Ebitda/adjusted profit after tax up by 11.7%/39.9% YoY to Rs 41.1 billion/Rs 23.3 billion led by better operating performance.

UltraTech Cement expects better volume growth versus industry and targets to reach 199.6 mtpa capacity by FY27E. We expect revenue/Ebitda/APAT compound annual growth rate of 11.3%/23.3%/29.2% over FY24-26E led by 10.2%/ 12.0% volume growth and -0.5%/0.8% realisation growth in FY25E/FY26E.

We maintain our Ebitda estimates for FY25E, however increase by 6.4% for FY26E factoring lower cost. We expect further improvement in Ebitda/tonne from Rs 1,089 in FY24 to Rs 1,245/Rs 1,342 in FY25E/FY26E.

Accordingly, we upgrade our rating to ‘Buy’ from Accumulate with revised target price of Rs 11,485 based on 16.5 times (versus earlier 16 times) consolidated FY26E enterprise value/Ebitda.

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