Top Picks For 2025: HPCL To Paytm — Axis Securities Recommends These 12 Stocks To Buy This New Year

Axis Securities Report

HPCL - Current market price: 406 / Rec. Price: 390-370 / Target: 485-544 / Upside: 28%-43%

Technical Outlook

• Since 2017, the stock has consolidated within the 300-130 range. However, the strong upmove in 2024 propelled it past the “multiple resistance” at 300 levels on the yearly chart, signalling a robust bullish trend.

• The quarterly price formation confirms a “rounding bottom,” reinforcing positive bias, while a yearly Bollinger Band buy signal indicates growing momentum.

• Rising volumes over the past 2-3 years highlight increasing market participation, further supporting the bullish outlook.

• We project the stock to extend its uptrend from current levels, targeting 2300-2500 in the coming quarters.

Fundamental Outlook

• Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd. is a major player in India's oil and gas industry, refining, marketing petroleum products, and managing E&P blocks. The company operates large refineries in Mumbai, Visakhapatnam, and Bathinda, with a total refining capacity of ~34.5 metric million tonnes per annum, expanding to 45.3 mmtpa by FY28.

• HPCL holds a 12.5% share in India’s refining capacity and a 19.4% market share in petroleum products. Revenue is driven by high-speed diesel (51%), motor spirit (26%), and LPG (13%).

• The company invests in network expansion and capex of Rs 74,000 crores across renewable energy, petroleum, and gas. HPCL's subsidiaries, including HPCL Mittal Energy Ltd and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd., support its growth while diversifying into petrochemicals, LNG, retail chains, hydrogen, and fuel cells.

Paytm - CMP: 1019 / Rec. Price: 940-855 / Target: 1150-1265 / Upside: 28%-41%

Technical Outlook

• On the quarterly chart, the One 97 Communications Ltd. has decisively broken out of a four-year downsloping trendline, signalling a major trend reversal.

• Additionally, a "Morning Star" reversal pattern highlights bullish sentiment. The stock has also surpassed the key resistance zone of 880-900 on a closing basis.

• With rising volumes indicating strong participation, we expect the stock to resume its upward momentum and move toward 1150-1265 in the coming quarters.

Fundamental Outlook

• Paytm is a fintech company founded by Vijay Shekhar Sharma in 2010 and headquartered in Noida, Uttar Pradesh. It offers a range of digital services and aggregates financial products in India. Paytm's services include digital payments, microcredit, Buy Now Pay Later, UPI payment platforms, and Soundbox.

• The company's long-term growth prospects are bolstered by cross-selling opportunities within its merchant business, new collaborations in the payments segment, and efforts to expand its customer base.

• Paytm's focus on judicious spending on marketing, employee expenses, and enhanced efficiency through automation is expected to improve margins.

• With strong consumer and merchant engagement, Paytm is well-positioned to tap into scalable markets, particularly in the mobile credit segment.

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