Falling inflation will provide the RBI with the necessary flexibility to prioritize growth concerns. Looking ahead, we expect the RBI MPC to cut policy rate by another 25bps in its April meeting. However, the MPC is likely to maintain its neutral stance amidst global uncertainty. With food inflation moderating and core inflation under control, the RBI could overlook concerns around imported inflation in midst of the global trade war.
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CareEdge Report
The upcoming monetary policy meeting in April takes place amid a significant moderation in headline inflation over recent months, aided by lower food inflation. Inflation is expected to remain closer to the 4% target over the next three quarters.
While growth momentum rebounded in Q3 FY25, with a 6.2% growth rate, up from 5.6% in Q2 FY25, it remains below potential. Moreover, external factors such as global policy uncertainty, risks from reciprocal tariffs, slower global growth, and geopolitical tensions will continue to pose challenges to domestic growth momentum.
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