Metal Sector Check - The New Brave World Of Indian Steel: ICICI Securities

ICICI Securities Report

Who can foretell the nature of afternoon from the fire of the morning sun? Despite the macro concerns around China, we believe Indian steel sector has entered a purple patch. Key points:

1. Steel consumption may rise two times to 210 mt by FY32;

2. Indian steel consumption is likely to drive global steel consumption, ending the 30-year hegemony of China;

3. for the first time, domestic steel companies are adding capacity without adding incremental debt; and

4. valuation rerating is on cards as the sector becomes more localised with lower leverage and better returns.

Taking cognisance of the expansion plans of the companies, leverage and returns, we now recommend Jindal Stainless Ltd. (target price: Rs 955), Jindal Steel and Power Ltd. (target price: Rs 1,240) and JSW Steel Ltd. (target price: Rs 1,140) as our key picks.

Our top picks have an upside of 35-40%.

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