L&T Finance - Riding Retailisation To Deliver Improved Profitability: Motilal Oswal

Retail mix now at ~91%; expect consol. RoA/RoE at 2.7%/15% by F26E

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Motilal Oswal Report

L&T Finance Holding Ltd. has exhibited a strong commitment to running down its wholesale book efficiently, resulting in a notable decline to ~Rs 70 billion (~9% of the Loan mix). Concurrently, the retail mix has improved to ~91%, with broad-based growth across all its core retail segments.

Retail Loans grew at a compound annual growth rate of ~25% with rural business finance (MFI) growing at CAGR of ~26%, 2W at ~15%, farm equipment at ~12% and home loans at ~25% over FY21-9M FY24. After a period of post-Covid consolidation, loan against proporty has resumed its growth trajectory with ~28% YoY growth.

Mr. Sudipta Roy assumed the role of CEO of L&T Finance effective January 2024. He aims to leverage his expertise/relationships from his previous role at ICICI Bank Ltd. to further improve credit underwriting practices and strengthen the franchise’s position.

Back in Q3 FY23, L&T Finance utilised the entire proceeds from the sale of its asset management business for marking down the wholesale book by taking a one-time provision of ~Rs 27 billion to account for illiquidity discounts.

We do not anticipate any significant incremental impact on the P&L from rundown of the residual wholesale book. Management has guided for an annualized drag of ~Rs 1.5-2 billion from the wholesale book over the next two years.

Through strong execution in retail, we expect L&T Finance to deliver a profit after tax CAGR of ~33% over FY23-FY26E. This will result in a return on asset/return on equity of 2.7%/15% in FY26E.

We reiterate our 'Buy' rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 200 (based on 1.8 times FY26E price/book value).

Key risks are-

  • asset quality deterioration in relatively vulnerable segments such as Personal Loans and MFI and

  • the possibility of weaker growth in retail loans from any economic slowdown.

Click on the attachment to read the full report:

Motilal Oswal L&T Finance Holding Update.pdf
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