Gravita India Shares May Rise 38%, Says ICICI Securities As It Maintains 'Buy' Post Q4 Earnings

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ICICI Securities Report

Gravita India Ltd.’s performance was in line with our estimates.

Key points:

1. Ebitda (including hedging gains) was up 22% YoY at Rs 1.06 billion.

2. Ebitda margin (adjusted) was up 20 bps YoY (30 bps QoQ) at 10.3%.

3. Lead sales volume rose 12.3% YoY at 45.6kt.

4. Capex of Rs 1.07 billion in FY25 compared to Rs 981 million in FY24.

Going ahead, management reiterated its focus on volume growth viz. a 25% CAGR, and RoIC of >25% through to FY29. Furthermore, the capex through to FY28E is likely to be Rs 15 billion, implying that Gravita is fast-tracking capacity expansion. We lower our FY26E/FY27E EPS by 10%/4%, taking cognizance of lower-than-expected ramp-up of aluminium capacity. Additionally, adjusting for the recently concluded QIP, our revised target price works out to Rs 2,670 (earlier Rs 3,250). Maintain Buy.

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