Eicher Motors Ltd.’s Q4 FY25 standalone Ebitda margin declined 24bps QoQ to 24.7%, below Bloomberg consensus estimate of 25.5% and the brokerage's estimate of 25.4%. The brokerage raises its rating on Shree Cement to Add from Reduce earlier, with a revised SOTP target price of Rs 30,800/share.
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HDFC Securities Institutional Equities
Eicher Motors - Focus on volumes; absolute Ebitda growth continues
Eicher Motors Ltd.’s Q4 FY25 standalone Ebitda margin declined 24bps QoQ to 24.7%, below Bloomberg consensus estimate of 25.5% and our estimate of 25.4%. We are seeing the company’s “volume over margin” strategy play out, with a focus on absolute Ebitda growth. However, the margin decline is sharper than expected.
Considering Q4 margins had certain one-offs, we expect them to bounce back, going forward, though they are expected to remain lower than they have been in recent years due to the focus on driving volumes. In the medium term, we also expect that the company’s efforts of the last few years in international markets will pay off, once global macro turns favourable.
VECV continues to do well with improvement in sales and margins. We value the company at 26x Mar-27 EPS, and along with the value of VECV, we achieve a target price of Rs 5,731, and maintain our Add rating.
Gail (India) - Weak petchem performance drags earnings down
Our Buy recommendation for GAIL India Ltd. with a target price of Rs 230 is based on-
an increase in gas transmission volume, led by demand from end-user industries like CGD and petchem;
completion of major pipelines; and
expectation of upward revision in transmission tariff of Integrated Natural Gas Pipeline (INGPL).
Q4 FY25 reported standalone Ebitda at Rs 32 billion (-9.6% YoY, +13.3% QoQ) and APAT at Rs 20 billion (-5.9% YoY, +5.6% QoQ), which came in ahead of our estimate, due to higher-than-expected gas transmission tariff. Depreciation was at Rs 9 billion (-22.2% YoY, +8.6% QoQ) whereas other income was at Rs 5.6 billion (-11.2% YoY, -24.4% QoQ). Interest cost was Rs 1.8 billion (-7.7% YoY, +7% QoQ).
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