Ambuja Cements Q4 Results Review - QoQ Better Quarter, Fair Valuation: Dolat Capital

Dolat Capital Report

Ambuja Cement Ltd. reported revenue in line, however realisation below estimates whereas volume, Ebitda, Ebitda/tonne and adjusted profit after tax above estimates.

Ambuja Cement posted +10.4% YoY (+12.3% QoQ) revenue to Rs 41.3 billion led by +7.5% YoY (+8.5% QoQ) volume to 7.7 million tonne coupled with +2.6% YoY (+3.6% QoQ) realisation/tonne to Rs 5,362.

Ebitda/adjusted profit after tax +9.8%/ +28.2% YoY to Rs 6.3 billion/ Rs 4.1 billion.

We broadly maintain our revenue estimate for FY23E, but increase Ebitda/ adjusted profit after tax factoring 12 months-FY23 numbers.

However, change in estimates is not comparable for FY24E/ FY25E factoring removal of earlier assumption of 30 million tonnes per annum/ 10 mtpa inorganic capacity expansion for FY24E/ FY25E.

We expect 7.4%/ 6.3%/ 3.7% revenue/ Ebitda/adjusted profit after tax compound annnual growth rate over CY21-FY25E led by 38.9%/ -19.4%/ +7.9% volume growth and 2.7%/ 0.0%/ 0.0% cement realisation growth in FY23E/ FY24E/ FY25E.

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