(Bloomberg) -- Theresa May’s Brexit deal finally goes to vote in Parliament, with defeat all but certain. Lawmakers will debate four amendments to the prime minister’s motion -- and they would all effectively wreck her draft accord with the European Union.
Follow continuing coverage in our TOPLive blog from 6:30 p.m. here.
Key Developments
- Voting on amendments starts after 7 p.m. in London; final vote on the motion about 8 p.m.
- Pound Slides
- Two of the amendments call on the government to change the much-loathed Irish backstop; if those amendments are approved, then Parliament will no longer be voting on a motion that fully reflects the deal May negotiated in Brussels
- EU said to expect May to return to Brussels this week for talks
Ministers Plan Conference Call With Businesses (6 p.m.)
Cabinet ministers will hold a conference call with businesses shortly after this evening’s votes, according to Institute of Directors head Stephen Martin.
Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond, Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay and Business Secretary Greg Clark will join the call, he said.
“We would like to know what the path ahead is,” said Martin. “Neither party has been clear so far.”
May’s government has held a series of calls and meetings with businesses at key moments in the Brexit process in the past year. They typically include the heads of major business lobby groups, as well as a range of chief executive officers.
Rudd Urges May to Rule Out No Deal (5:30 p.m.)
Work and Pensions Secretary Amber Rudd urged May to take a no-deal Brexit off the table, according to three people familiar with the discussions at Tuesday’s Cabinet meeting, on the basis that Parliament is likely to rule it out anyway and that it would be better for May to take the lead and do it in a way that suits her.
One of the people said Rudd was backed by Justice Secretary David Gauke and Business Secretary Greg Clark, adding that other Cabinet ministers wouldn’t have a problem with the U.K. crashing out of the bloc on 29 March. Gauke suggested to May that taking no deal off the table could get Conservative lawmakers onside, according to one person.
And according to two people familiar with the discussions, though May will move quickly to lay out her plans after the vote, she’ll mostly focus on the timetable over the coming weeks and it will be a “workmanlike” statement.
May Urged to Seek EU Concessions for Another Vote (5:15 p.m.)
Tory lawmakers said they expect May to seek more concessions from the EU and put her deal to further votes in the House of Commons if she is defeated as expected tonight.
Scottish Secretary David Mundell earlier became the first member of her Cabinet to publicly concede she is likely to be defeated. He referred to Tuesday’s showdown as an “initial vote” and urged rebel Tories to reconsider.
“What I would want to see is that in the cold light of day they will then reflect on what are the real options,” Mundell told BBC Scotland, hinting that the premier will move to another vote.
Rank-and-file lawmakers said they expect her to use the defeat as leverage in further talks with the EU, including seeking legally binding assurances on the Withdrawal Agreement. One close ally suggested she might be willing to soften her line on the customs union -- though not on freedom of movement -- to win support from the opposition Labour Party for the agreement.
EU Said to Expect May to Return for Talks This Week (5 p.m.)
The EU is expecting May to return to Brussels for talks this week, according to an EU official. The bloc wants her to outline what she thinks she needs to get the Brexit deal passed by Parliament if, as expected, she loses tonight. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker is planning to return to the Belgian capital tonight from the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France.
A person familiar with the discussions in today’s U.K. Cabinet meeting also said May will likely have to return to Brussels, probably on Thursday if tomorrow is set aside for a confidence vote in Parliament (see 12:40 p.m.)
Leigh Threatens to Vote Against Government (4:30 p.m.)
Conservative lawmaker Edward Leigh expressed dismay that the government hadn’t backed his amendment (see 1:45 p.m.), which demands the government promises to terminate the entire Brexit deal if it is clear by the end of 2021 that the EU is refusing to end the Irish backstop.
Leigh said his amendment was an attempt to find a “compromise” that would unite his party behind a deal, and threatened to vote against the government if it didn’t back it. He said the government should go back to Brussels if the deal is voted down to resolve the backstop issue.
Earlier, Attorney General Geoffrey Cox said accepting Leigh’s amendment would mean Parliament had not ratified the deal with the EU.
Pro-EU Conservatives Divided on Deal (4:05 p.m.)
Tory Remainers are split over whether to support May’s deal. While former ministers Nicky Morgan and Ken Clarke said they would vote for it, their frequent leader Dominic Grieve said he “can’t support the government.”
“For two and a half years and during the period of the referendum, we have been living in a fool’s paradise in relation to expectations,” Grieve said. “As the death threats come in and the rhetoric heats up we must stay sensible, have a dialog across the house and try to solve this.”
Morgan said voters had backed “change and it’s up to us to deliver that change,” but told lawmakers that if the deal is defeated, May should try other options. “There are other deals, other models, on the table where I believe this House can find consensus and compromise. Carrying on with this deal can’t be an option, and I’d be disappointed if the prime minister did that.”
More Cox Warnings (1:55 p.m.)
The attorney general also dismissed the claim from Brexiteers -- citing a House of Lords report -- that the U.K. has no legal obligation to pay 39 billion pounds to the EU.
“The House of Lords did not say that, the House of Lords committee said there was none in EU law, but there may well be public international law obligations,” he told lawmakers. “In my judgment the basis of saying there are no public international law obligations is flimsy at best.”
Cox warned that refusing to pay money to EU is “not attractive, not consistent with the honor of this country and not consistent with the rule of law.” He said “any future relationship will rely upon good faith and good will” and the U.K. should keep to its obligations just as it expects the EU to keep to its promises on the Irish backstop.
Cox: Accepting Backstop Change Would Not Ratify Deal (1:45 p.m.)
Cox is asked why the government won’t accept the amendment B put forward by a Tory, Edward Leigh, which demands the government promises to terminate the entire Brexit deal if it is clear by the end of 2021 that the EU is refusing to end the Irish backstop.
Crucially, the attorney general responds that if the government ever did so it would be in violation of international law, and that accepting the amendment would mean Parliament had not ratified the deal with the EU.
Cox: ‘Order or Chaos’ (1:30 p.m.)
Attorney General Geoffrey Cox opened the last day of debate in the House of Commons with a reassurance that there are protections in the withdrawal agreement and appeals to lawmakers to consider the benefits of May’s deal.
“We are playing with people’s lives,” he said. “We must come together now as mature legislators to ask ourselves what are the fundamental objections, if there are any, to this withdrawal agreement.”
“We can’t underestimate the complexity of what we are embarked upon today,” he told them, before saying that the decision is straightforward. “Do we opt for order or do we choose chaos?”
More on the Amendments (1:10 p.m.)
Here’s the full list of amendments chosen by Speaker John Bercow:
Amendment A: Labour Party amendment that would reject May’s deal
Amendment K: Scottish National Party proposal that would also reject the deal
Amendment B: A Conservative backbench amendment that notes the so-called Irish backstop is “temporary” and would give the government the right to terminate the Withdrawal Agreement
Amendment F: an amendment that seeks to give U.K. right to terminate backstop without EU approval
This raises the prospect that if one of the backstop amendments is approved, Parliament will be voting on a motion that doesn’t faithfully reflect the divorce terms that May negotiated with Brussels.
Speaker Selects Four Amendments for Vote (1:05 p.m.)
Speaker of the House of Commons John Bercow selected four amendments for Parliament to vote on, meaning the key vote on May’s Brexit deal will come at about 8 p.m. London time.
The amendments chosen by Bercow include wrecking amendments from both the Scottish National Party and the main opposition Labour Party.
DUP’s Standing Firm (1 p.m.)
Democratic Unionist Party leader Arlene Foster is standing firm, saying there’s no way her 10 lawmakers will back Theresa May’s deal. In a Bloomberg Television interview, she made the counter intuitive point that the more “comprehensive” the defeat May suffers this evening, the better her chances of persuading the EU to reopen the deal. Foster also urged May not to seek to postpone Brexit day, and instead use the looming deadline to help win a more acceptable deal. Foster’s view matters because May effectively relies on the DUP to keep her in power.
May Expects Labour to Call No-Confidence Vote (12:40 p.m.)
The government is braced to defend itself against a formal vote of no-confidence as soon as Wednesday, according to an official. Speaking on condition of anonymity, the official said May’s team believes Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn will force the vote on Wednesday, though it’s not certain.
If Corbyn does put forward a formal no-confidence motion, it will take priority over other business in Parliament. A debate on whether or not the House of Commons has confidence in Her Majesty’s Government would then follow, lasting for the rest of the day. The vote would be expected to take place at the end of the debate.
May to Meet Tory Politicians Ahead of Vote (12:30 p.m.)
May’s spokesman, James Slack, has just finished briefing reporters on this morning’s Cabinet meeting and the preparations for this evening’s vote. She’ll hold talks with Conservative politicians ahead of the action in the House of Commons, he said, and the prime minister will respond quickly after Parliament has delivered the verdict on her deal.
May is also in ongoing talks with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, according to Slack. Leader Arlene Foster said Tuesday the party wouldn’t support May’s deal in comments broadcast by the BBC.
Separately, a U.K. official said the government expects few if any amendments to its Brexit motion to be selected by the Speaker -- meaning the timing of the key vote would come sooner after 7 p.m.
Germany Says Deal Won’t be Changed ‘Substantially’ (12 p.m.)
German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said there could be further talks if the U.K. Parliament rejects May’s Brexit deal, even though the agreement “stands, as it is and won’t be changed substantially.”
Maas was speaking to reporters in Strasbourg and responding to a question about the possibility of adding a time limit to the Irish backstop, the most controversial part of the withdrawal agreement. The government in Berlin earlier denied a British newspaper report claiming that Chancellor Angela Merkel had promised further concessions to May.
Maas said he had not yet given up hope that the British Parliament will vote in favor of the accord, which he said would be a “victory of reason.”
May Meets Cabinet Ahead of Key Vote (11:30 a.m.)
Prime Minister Theresa May is holding her weekly Cabinet meeting. A key question is whether the government throws its backing behind an amendment put down by Tory lawmaker Andrew Murrison, which would put a time limit on the controversial Irish backstop clause -- the sticking point for many lawmakers opposing May’s deal with the EU. By Tuesday morning, some 30 lawmakers had signed up to that amendment, including Graham Brady, the influential head of the 1922 Committee of rank-and-file Tories.
Meanwhile Labour politician Hilary Benn, who also chairs Parliament’s Brexit Committee, withdrew the amendment he proposed last year that was designed to show a parliamentary majority against a no-deal Brexit. It follows an intervention from Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell and other influential Labour members of Parliament in recent days, who argued for a clean vote on May’s deal to illustrate the extent of opposition to it.
House of Commons Speaker John Bercow is considering which amendments to select; an announcement is expected in Parliament at 12:50 p.m.
Coming Up:
- Voting on May’s Brexit deal motion after 7 p.m. Four amendments have been chosen, meaning key vote should come before 8:15 p.m.
Earlier:
May Faces Worst Government Defeat in 95 Years in Brexit Vote
U.K., EU Diplomats Said to Now Assume Brexit Will Be Delayed
Pound Pundits See Line in Sand at 100-Vote Loss Margin for May
Brexit Bulletin: The Depth of Defeat
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