World’s Worst Stock Market Risks More Pain From Pension Selling

(Bloomberg) -- The world’s worst-performing stock market this year is at risk of an even steeper drop from a proposal to let Colombians tap pension savings during the coronavirus crisis.

The government has held talks with private pension funds regarding an “important proposal” that would allow workers to draw down their retirement accounts, Finance Minister Alberto Carrasquilla told lawmakers Wednesday.

The government has made “advances” on the issue, though hasn’t reached a decision, Carrasquilla said. The plan would likely need congressional approval.

If implemented, such a plan may force the nation’s private pension funds to sell stocks to cover withdrawals, said Carlos Enrique Rodriguez, director of equity research at Ultraserfinco SA, a Bogota brokerage. The funds have more than $70 billion of assets under management, and could trigger an even deeper sell-off in an already battered market.

“This could be a game changer in Colombia,” Rodriguez said, in reply to written questions. “From a market perspective, this could represent a significant level of sales of assets.”

The benchmark Colcap index has slumped 40% in dollar terms this year, the biggest drop among more than ninety major stock markets tracked by Bloomberg. While Colombia has so far seen relatively few coronavirus deaths, the government has enacted a strict lockdown, resulting in economic havoc.

Millions have lost their jobs, the largest airline declared bankruptcy, and the Finance Ministry is forecasting the deepest contraction since records began in 1905.

Foreign funds have cut their exposure to Colombia, with net sales of about 2.3 trillion pesos ($625 million) of equities through May. That’s been offset by the nation’s private pension funds, which were net buyers of roughly the same amount through the first five months of the year, according to Ultraserfinco.

The market for government treasuries, known as TES, would also be vulnerable to such a measure, said Sergio Olarte, an economist at Scotiabank Colpatria.

“The important work that has been done in the Treasury to maintain liquidity and generate the attractiveness in TES can be lost because pension funds would have to sell their portfolios en masse,” he said.

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