Monsoon 2025 Forecast: IMD Vs Skymet

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday said that the country will experience above-normal cumulative rainfall this monsoon, ruling out the possibility of El Nino conditions. The IMD’s prediction followed about a week after private weather agency Skymet predicted a ‘normal’ southwest monsoon in 2025.

India considers the months from June to September as the official monsoon or seasonal rainfall period. A good monsoon year is significant for the Indian economy, as agriculture plays a major role and depends heavily on consistent rainfall for crop production, rural income, and overall growth.

On April 8, Skymet issued its forecast, projecting a normal monsoon with seasonal rainfall expected to reach 103% of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 868.6 mm from June to September. In contrast, the IMD anticipates above-normal rainfall at 105% of LPA for 2025, allowing for a model error margin of ±5%. A normal monsoon is defined as rainfall between 96% and 104% of the Long Period Average (LPA), which marks the average rainfall recorded over many years.

IMD: In an official statement, the IMD said: “The southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole during 2025 is most likely to be above normal (>104% of the Long Period Average (LPA)). Quantitatively, the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 105% of LPA with a model error of ± 5%.”

Skymet: The agency predicted that the upcoming monsoon would be 'normal,' with rainfall likely to reach 103% of the Long Period Average (LPA). This estimate comes with a margin of error of ±5%, based on an LPA of 868.6 mm for the four-month period from June to September.

IMD: The IMD uses a combination of statistical methods and a Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) forecasting system for its monsoon forecasts. The MME approach integrates global climate models, including IMD’s model – Monsoon Mission Climate Forecasting System (MMCFS).

Skymet: Skymet runs its numerical weather models and provides an array of weather-based services through data and information tools. 

IMD: While sharing its monsoon forecast on Tuesday, the IMD said that there was a strong probability of 59% that the southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall will be above normal or higher this year.

Contrary to the IMD, Skymet said that there was a 30% chance that India could get an above-normal monsoon this year. It favoured a 40% chance of a normal monsoon, and a 15% chance of below normal monsoon for the season.

IMD: IMD Chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra also shared that their models indicated that neutral ENSO conditions, where neither El Nino nor La Nina dominates, are likely to prevail during the 2025 monsoon. El Nino is a climate pattern, which is marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures. Similarly, La Nina is characterised by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures.

Skymet: Similar to the IMD, the private agency stated that La Nina this season was weak and short-lived, and its signs are now fading. It added that the occurrence of El Nino, which typically disrupts the monsoon, has also been ruled out. ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to dominate during the Indian Summer Monsoon, it added.

According to the IMD, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are likely to prevail during the southwest monsoon this season. A positive IOD is linked to good monsoon rainfall. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a climate pattern where warm waters shift westward during a positive phase.

The Skymet said that early forecasts suggested a positive IOD, which is likely to support better monsoon conditions. The monsoon will also be aided by ENSO-neutral patterns, it said, aligning with IMD’s forecast. Skymet also expects the latter half of the monsoon to perform better than the initial phase.

The IMD has said that “above normal monsoon is very likely over most parts of the country except some parts of north west India, north-east, and southern peninsular India, where below normal rainfall is likely,” the weather body said.

Skymet expects core rain-fed regions of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh to receive adequate rainfall, and generally good rainfall over western and southern India during the monsoon season. Like IMD, it also indicated an uneven rainfall distribution as the Western Ghats, particularly Kerala and coastal Karnataka, will get excess monsoon. Meanwhile, north Indian states and the northeast are expected to receive below-normal rainfall during the season.

India’s retail inflation eased to 3.34% in March, the lowest in over five years, the government data showed on Tuesday. Food prices have continued to soften, helping bring down overall inflation.

India is the world’s top exporter of rice and onions, and the second-largest sugar producer, and improved weather may support India’s agri-trade outlook in 2025. After surplus rainfall in 2024, the country lifted export curbs on rice and onions, allowing limited sugar exports of 1 million tons. Based on IMD’s outlook, a second consecutive year of good rains could mean increased exports for India, a Mumbai-based trade dealer told Reuters.