US Copper Prices Surge To Record As Trump Calls For 50% Tariff

Copper futures in New York surged after US President Donald Trump said he planned to implement a 50% tariff on imports, a move that’s likely to spark massive supply-chain ripples through global metal markets.

Contracts on the Comex climbed as much as 17% on Tuesday, a record one-day spike, before falling more than 4% in early trading on Wednesday. The New York price commanded a massive 24% premium to equivalent futures in London, the market that sets global benchmark prices.

The New York price traded at $5.5085 a pound at 8:23 a.m in Shanghai on Wednesday, while copper on the London Metal Exchange was 1.7% lower at $9,627 a ton.

If tariffs take hold, the measures are expected to inflict higher costs across a broad section of the US economy due to the myriad of industries and applications that rely on copper. The metal is used in everything from consumer electronics and automobiles to home construction and data centers.

In the meantime, there are likely to be dislocations in the market given the significant US premiums. Traders have been shipping record volumes of copper into the US in recent months to front-run any possible implementation of tariffs, and the fresh spike in Comex prices will create an added incentive to move any final shipments of metal there quickly before the levies are introduced.

“In the short term, the price is going to rise significantly because the market was” expecting a lower tariff rate, said Juan Carlos Guajardo, founder of consultancy Plusmining. “So, there will be a lot of buying before the tariff goes into effect.”

Trump’s directive comes as the US and the rest of the world expect a dramatic surge over the coming decade in demand for the industrial metal, with data centers, automakers, power companies and others scouring the globe for feedstock to increase electric-vehicle output and electric grid capacity. Retooling power and transportation systems to run on renewable energy will require far more copper than the companies that produce it are currently committed to deliver.

The global copper industry has been bracing for the levies since February, when Trump ordered the Commerce Department to lay out the case for imposing them on national security grounds as part of a review under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act. The plans have been met with resistance from manufacturers, who are heavily reliant on imports.

Trump’s latest comments came on Tuesday during a meeting with reporters.

“I believe the tariff on copper, we’re going to make it 50%,” Trump said in response to a reporter’s question during a Cabinet meeting.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, speaking to CNBC shortly after the Cabinet meeting, said his department’s investigation into copper had concluded and he expected the levy “likely to be put in place end of July — maybe Aug. 1.”

“Copper is finished. We’re done with our study,” Lutnick said. “We’ve handed the study over to the president. The president knows that he has the ability, since we’ve studied the market for copper, to set the market tariff for copper.”

Lutnick’s comments will shift attention to what the copper industry will look like once those tariffs come into effect.

Morgan Stanley analysts said Trump’s latest move will support higher Comex copper prices, since they will reflect the cost of bringing metal into the US, though a buildup in domestic inventories should soften the impact in the short term.

There are still a lot of outstanding questions for the market, including the exact timeline for the potential tariffs. The industry is also awaiting further details on the types of copper shipments that would be impacted and whether there will be any exemptions.

Mining officials in Chile, by far the biggest shipper of copper into the US, are among those waiting for details.

Chile — and particularly state-owned Codelco — would be the most affected producer given the country accounts for about 500,000 metric tons of the total of 700,000 tons of refined metal that the US imports a year. Of that, Codelco alone ships about 350,000 tons.

Asked about the 50% remarks, Chile’s Foreign Ministry pointed out that there’s still no executive order regarding a Commerce Department investigation into copper tariffs, and that Chile has yet to receive notification of any decision. Similarly, Codelco Chairman Maximo Pacheco said it’s too soon to draw conclusions.

Still, Comex prices are likely to cool after the US tariffs kick in and the frenzy to ship the metal to American shores subsides.

The US consumed about 1.6 million tons of refined copper in 2024, according to the US Geological Survey. While the US has significant mines, producing some 850,000 tons of primary copper last year, it still relies on imports from key trade allies to fill the need. Chile is the largest import source, accounting for 38% of total import volumes, followed by Canada at 28% and Mexico, with 8% share. Net copper imports account for 36% of demand, according to Morgan Stanley research.