Bond Investors Look To Fed For Guidance On Timing Of Rate Cuts

Treasuries investors whipsawed by President Donald Trump’s trade and fiscal policies will this week glimpse the impact on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate policy.

While Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues are set to keep their benchmark steady at the June 17-18 meeting, traders will scrutinize economic and interest-rate projections for insight into how policymakers may respond to the uncertainty. 

Markets ended Friday pricing in a roughly 80% chance the Fed next lowers rates in September, with less than two quarter-point cuts fully priced in by year-end. A rally in Treasuries last week was tempered Friday as escalating geopolitical tensions led to a surgein oil prices. 

• Economic data:

  • June 16: Empire manufacturing; import and export price index

  • June 17: Retail sales; import and export prices; NY Fed services business activity; industrial production; capacity utilization; business inventories; Manufacturing (SIC) production; NAHB housing market index

  • June 18: MBA mortgage applications; Housing starts; building permits; initial jobless claims; TIC flows

  • June 20: Philadelphia Fed business outlook; leading index

• Fed calendar:

  • June 18: FOMC rate decision

• Auction calendar:

  • June 16: 13-, 26-week bills; re-opening of 20-year bonds

  • June 17: 6-week bills; re-opening of 5-year TIPS

  • June 18: 4-, 8-, 17-week bills