(Bloomberg) --
If you are a believer in the apparent market consensus that President Donald Trump’s trade wars have peaked and that sunny days lay ahead for the global economy, then Monday was a very bad day and Tuesday isn’t looking much better.
Yesterday in Washington started with an early-morning presidential announcement of new steel tariffs on Argentina and Brazil alongside calls for Federal Reserve actions to weaken the dollar and ended with a threat for 100% tariffs on French champagne and other Gallic goods over a new digital tax. In between came news the U.S. was contemplating increasing the scope of tariffs levied against the European Union over illegal Airbus subsidies after a World Trade Organization ruling.
On top of it all came threats from China to respond vigorously to the expected passage through Congress of a bill calling for Chinese officials and companies involved in the crackdown on ethnic Muslims in Xinjiang to be hit with sanctions. After last week’s signing by Trump of a bill aimed at supporting protesters in Hong Kong, the Xinjiang bill again bodes badly for that much-touted “phase one” deal to bring at least a temporary peace in the trade wars and avoid a looming Dec. 15 wave of U.S. tariffs on smartphones, toys and other consumer favorites. Today, Trump signaled no urgency to do that deal.
There’s an argument to be made that some of Monday’s tariffs and threats were measured and in good cause. Targeting Argentina and Brazil over their weak currencies and calling for the Fed to pile in is to call for currency wars and a dangerous end to the international monetary policy order. But no one in American business — and certainly not in Silicon Valley — likes the French digital services tax that the champagne tariffs would target. The levy is already inviting copycats and efforts to find a multilateral solution seem to be growing more distant. There’s a policy argument to be made.
Yet Trump on Monday seemed to be again sending a bigger message about tariffs. If markets have surged since the summer in part because investors are betting Trump has opted for peace over disruptive duties in his dealings with China, the president seems to draw the inverse lesson. He sees financial indices hitting records as an affirmation that tariffs are an economic winner, as he tweeted on Monday.
With 12 days left until Trump has to decide whether to go ahead with those additional tariffs on China — and another market-shaking escalation — that sentiment may be the one that deserved more attention. The optimistic hot take for markets is that this week’s actions are intended as a warning to China that now is the time to close the phase-one deal.
The more sober takeaway, though, may be that Trump is again eager to use his favorite economic weapon and shrugging off the advice of advisers concerned over the possible damage to markets and global growth another escalation would mean.
Or, put another way: Tariff Man is back, long live Tariff Man.
Charting the Trade War
The U.S. may lag on passenger rail, but it’s a world leader when it comes to freight, according to Bloomberg Opinion’s Justin Fox. Trains carry almost as much freight (as measured in ton-miles or ton-kilometers) in the U.S. as trucks do, which certainly isn’t the case in Japan or the world’s other biggest economies.
Today’s Must Reads
- WTO cliff-edge | The World Trade Organization’s appeals panel will cease to function starting Dec. 11 when one of its three remaining members plans to step down.
- Brazil’s bet backfires | Trump’s announcement that he is reinstating tariffs on steel and aluminum from Brazil is a slap in the face for Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro.
- Soy exhausted | China has used up almost all of its waivers — about 10 million metric tons — to purchase American soybeans that are free of retaliatory tariffs.
- Coal crunch | It’s about to get harder for U.S.’s miners to ship their coal to Asia. The city of Richmond, California, is expected to approve a ban on coal at a terminal that accounts for almost a quarter of exports from the West Coast.
- French-fry squeeze | Potato processors are rushing to buy supplies and ship them across North America in order to keep French fries on the menu after cold, wet weather damaged crops in key producers in the U.S. and Canada.
Economic Analysis
- Whiskey relief | U.S. tariffs on single-malt whiskies in the latest trade spat — $350 million of 2018's $1.7 billion of whisky imports — will likely be borne by consumers.
- Stressing Brazil’s economy | New tariffs on steel and aluminum exports to the U.S. represent yet another headwind for Brazil’s slowing exports.
Coming Up
- Dec. 5: U.S. trade balance
- Dec. 6: France trade balance
- Dec. 8: China trade balance
- Dec. 9: Germany trade balance
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